NUCLEUS nearly.trade

nucleus.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nucleus.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (sourfile4211.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (358 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 32 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 115.9% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: fe91129dbdd2136942e40…a80a2 (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 06:39:10 UTC, 953.8 min after the launch: CFoXKRrbCrGjV…bGZbT.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -98.63 NEAR · insiders' net result: +8.56 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 32% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 14:45:21 UTC · block 217645817 · history: launch only
TransactionC6Yji2LmqPdjz…c7n6F
Creatorfe91129dbdd2136942e40dd39bfe7b11eb292bb66758d513f1046b9199ba80a2 explorer
Poolnucleus.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy30.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-10 09:51 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-10 09:51 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.31x the peak
Outside buyers in profit21 of 80 · 26.2%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 23 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%115.9%
Dev's first sell after launch————953.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2753717580
Buyers spent572.99 NEAR1,232.83 NEAR1,516.70 NEAR1,593.17 NEAR1,671.53 NEAR
Buyers net result+273.60 NEAR+327.28 NEAR+246.63 NEAR-31.33 NEAR-98.63 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%115.9%
Insiders' net result+40.27 NEAR+47.63 NEAR+42.52 NEAR+15.33 NEAR+8.56 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.31x3.09x3.09x3.09x3.09x
Holders2942483014
Top 10 holders' share71.8%57.1%56.9%75.0%99.2%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.8% · holds 2.8% · holds 2.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 26.9% · 23 of 23 hold 16.7% · 14 of 23 hold 5.2% · 4 of 23 hold
Other early buyers 6.5% · 4 of 4 hold 4.6% · 6 of 7 hold 3.0% · 3 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)33.3% · 27 wallets21.3% · 30 wallets8.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)63.9%76.0%89.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)71.8%57.1%75.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder76.6% · 2 merged57.1% · 2 merged75.0% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 x0xdead.near 28 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +2.31 NEAR
pair bought within 4.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.5 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.8 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 29 s · transaction 89.55 NEAR 7.9 min after buying · transaction +22.77 NEAR
pair bought within 2.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.7 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 32 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction +1.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 4.2 s of x0xdead.near · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4 supremegay.near 39 s · transaction 49.75 NEAR 8.4 min after buying · transaction +46.53 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 32.3 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.5 s of x0xdead.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5 1b76ae18a16312f…d61a4 63 s · transaction 39.80 NEAR 12.2 min after buying · transaction +42.52 NEAR none found
6 syndi95.near 71 s · transaction 29.85 NEAR 11.9 min after buying · transaction +28.00 NEAR
pair bought within 32.3 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.6 s of louduser4868.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7 louduser4868.near 95 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 6.1 min after buying · transaction +4.77 NEAR
pair bought within 55.9 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.9 s of bodro94.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.6 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 bodro94.near 107 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 7.4 min after buying · transaction +2.42 NEAR
pair bought within 11.9 s of louduser4868.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961 111 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 7.4 min after buying · transaction +5.04 NEAR
pair bought within 60.0 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 22eff1598b71a3e…5250a 113 s · transaction 9.95 NEAR 34.9 min after buying · transaction +5.89 NEAR
pair bought within 58.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
11 peekaby.near 2.3 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +5.59 NEAR
pair bought within 33.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.7 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 80289da0a50f047…d6989 2.4 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction +20.70 NEAR
pair bought within 25.4 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.0 s of supremeanal.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 pajet.near 2.6 min · transaction 45.00 NEAR 6.1 min after buying · transaction +18.42 NEAR none found
14 supremeanal.near 2.8 min · transaction 66.00 NEAR 21.8 min after buying · transaction -1.06 NEAR
pair bought within 20.0 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 aceng03.near 2.9 min · transaction 9.00 NEAR 37.9 min after buying · transaction +2.15 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches
pair bought within 19.6 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.4 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.0 s of 5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
16 ruggerino.near 3.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 14.6 min after buying · transaction +0.51 NEAR
pair bought within 9.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f 3.1 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +6.36 NEAR
pair bought within 13.0 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be 3.2 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR 5.0 min after buying · transaction +14.95 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 19.6 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.9 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.5 s of teend.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
19 d3418c8da337c0b…fe2ee 3.3 min · transaction 14.92 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +4.47 NEAR none found
20 irene.user.intear.near 3.5 min · transaction 39.72 NEAR 36.4 min after buying · transaction +5.82 NEAR
pair bought within 41.6 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of fe91129dbdd2136942e40…a80a2

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-28 14:45 UTC nearly.trade nucleus-2.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 06:42 UTC nearly.trade nucleus-3.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only