NVANA nearly.trade

nvana.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (0.700% per buy, 0.700% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch nvana.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (827 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 9.51 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 107.3% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: rakermoon.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 13:32:32 UTC, 2.7 min after the launch: GeRoYzSKxFPSa…uaCpq.
Outside buyers' net result: -9.51 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.04 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-16 13:29:47 UTC · block 220229007 · history: launch only
Transaction	7txKsrStRykNK…tAiTD
Creator	rakermoon.near explorer
Pool	nvana.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	15.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-16 20:33 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-16 20:33 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.70x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	4 of 17 · 23.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 14 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	107.3%	107.3%
Dev's first sell after launch	2.7 min	2.7 min	2.7 min	2.7 min	2.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	17	17	17	17
Buyers spent	213.62 NEAR	214.62 NEAR	214.62 NEAR	214.62 NEAR	214.62 NEAR
Buyers net result	-3.37 NEAR	-9.25 NEAR	-9.47 NEAR	-9.51 NEAR	-9.67 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	107.3%	107.3%
Insiders' net result	+1.98 NEAR	+1.98 NEAR	+1.98 NEAR	+3.04 NEAR	+3.04 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x
Holders	8	4	3	5	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.4% · 7 of 14 hold	0.9% · 3 of 14 hold	0.8% · 2 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	2.3% · 1 of 2 hold	0.1% · 1 of 3 hold	0% · 0 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.8% · 16 wallets	0.9% · 17 wallets	0.8% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	93.2%	99.0%	99.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	sickvilla1308.near	4 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	103 s after buying · transaction	+2.35 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 0.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 53 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	4 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	10.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 16.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.31 NEAR	pair bought within 4.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.1 s of alola.near · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	21 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	5.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 16.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.6 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5	pramsndut.near	28 s · transaction	34.65 NEAR	94 s after buying · transaction	+0.66 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 23.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	56c9a6ef438223b….near	45 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	75 s after buying · transaction	+0.45 NEAR	pair bought within 40.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.2 s of alola.near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	49 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	5.4 min after buying · transaction	-3.25 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 16.5 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	rekttin.near	57 s · transaction	49.80 NEAR	57 s after buying · transaction	-1.39 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 7.8 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	e8a162641a55288…58210	58 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	58 s after buying · transaction	-1.20 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 53.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	59 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.47 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 6.6 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of rekttin.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	65 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.30 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 16.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.2 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12	628a1f98ce15fa2…bde96	95 s · transaction	0.99 NEAR	84 s after buying · transaction	-0.20 NEAR	pair bought within 35.9 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	r3ndaik.tg	2.1 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	73 s after buying · transaction	-0.0009 NEAR	none found
14	e5fea475b1c2395…e15e6	2.1 min · transaction	27.90 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-3.03 NEAR	none found
15	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	2.2 min · transaction	1.78 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 11.4 s of fd45b6de05c0a80…1ff4e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	fd45b6de05c0a80…1ff4e	2.4 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.68 NEAR	pair bought within 11.4 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	poliag.near	11.3 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of rakermoon.near

None known.