OINK nearly.trade

oink.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 60.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 6000).
Evidence: launch oink.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1746 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -26.58 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 48% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 14:37:40 UTC · block 218070009 · history: launch only
Transaction	2KdM2n9Cnkf25…nDxmh
Creator	41e40081777c25b5f6e4f8ee16a880484e6673f7360ad4aef39856c6eea99f03 explorer
Pool	oink.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 60.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-07 21:24 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-07 21:24 UTC
Price now	0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.43x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	17 of 50 · 34%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0.2% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 23 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	25	40	47	50	50
Buyers spent	492.49 NEAR	735.72 NEAR	832.56 NEAR	887.69 NEAR	887.69 NEAR
Buyers net result	+141.19 NEAR	+182.87 NEAR	+56.62 NEAR	-0.16 NEAR	-26.58 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.87x	2.23x	2.28x	2.28x	2.28x
Holders	22	32	28	22	8
Top 10 holders' share	89.2%	78.6%	86.0%	93.2%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	25.3% · 17 of 20 hold	24.8% · 18 of 23 hold	3.4% · 5 of 23 hold
Other early buyers	2.5% · 4 of 5 hold	2.4% · 5 of 7 hold	1.0% · 3 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	27.7% · 25 wallets	27.2% · 30 wallets	4.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	72.3%	72.8%	95.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	89.2%	78.6%	93.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	95.2% · 2 merged	86.4% · 2 merged	94.9% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	10 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+6.28 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	51.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.52 NEAR	pair bought within 2.3 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.4 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	12 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	+3.88 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 2.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	f044e90b41ae546…4106c	57 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+11.72 NEAR	none found
5	3347dd8076331ad…52407	69 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.20 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 58.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.5 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	supremegay.near	71 s · transaction	59.52 NEAR	25.0 min after buying · transaction	+28.95 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 3.8 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.2 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	syndi95.near	75 s · transaction	54.56 NEAR	51.2 min after buying · transaction	+6.37 NEAR	pair bought within 3.8 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.5 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	98 s · transaction	130.73 NEAR	12.6 min after buying · transaction	+18.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 25.5 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.8 s of supremegay.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	2.1 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	27.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 25.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	imnotnice.near	2.4 min · transaction	19.84 NEAR	53.8 min after buying · transaction	-3.04 NEAR	pair bought within 49.1 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	badriansyahirwa….near	2.6 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	26.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 30.8 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.0 s of supremeanal.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	unknownchain.near	2.6 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	59 s after buying · transaction	+3.86 NEAR	pair bought within 13.1 s of meteorrrr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of louduser4868.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	volat.near	2.6 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	26.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.47 NEAR	pair bought within 32.1 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	meteorrrr.near	2.8 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	26 s after buying · transaction	+0.40 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of louduser4868.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of unknownchain.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.2 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
15	louduser4868.near	2.8 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	42 s after buying · transaction	+0.80 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of meteorrrr.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.2 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of unknownchain.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16	07c4f546ac45df7…72216	2.9 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.58 NEAR	pair bought within 18.5 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	84730cb083829b6…d761e	3.1 min · transaction	2.48 NEAR	19.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.84 NEAR	none found
18	wolfgangamadeus.near	3.1 min · transaction	2.98 NEAR	23.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 18.3 s of louduser4868.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.4 s of pajet.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.3 s of meteorrrr.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	3.2 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	23.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.47 NEAR	pair bought within 34.5 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of imnotnice.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.5 s of 07c4f546ac45df7…72216 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	3a3946fa328cd73….near	3.2 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.23 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 41e40081777c25b5f6e4f…99f03

None known.