OLIVINE nearly.trade

olivine-10.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 75 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
3 of the 3 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (3 by the creator); smoothed rug share 68%.
Evidence: launch olivine-4.nearlyt….near, launch olivine-2.nearlyt….near, launch olivine.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch olivine-10.nearly….near
+5
The name 'olivine' was already used 3.4 h earlier by another creator (olivine-9.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch olivine-9.nearlyt….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 6 % (472 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 33.61 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: olivineprotocol.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 19:03:22 UTC, 2.6 min after the launch: DhagnJpE58gTt…qbJNX.
Outside buyers' net result: -33.61 NEAR · insiders' net result: +22.49 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 19:00:46 UTC · block 217671525 · history: launch only
Transaction	4NzCruztafE3B…eXQEZ
Creator	olivineprotocol.near explorer
Pool	olivine-10.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-28 20:31 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	2.6 min	2.6 min	2.6 min	2.6 min	2.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	20	20	20	20	20
Buyers spent	304.78 NEAR	304.78 NEAR	304.78 NEAR	304.78 NEAR	304.78 NEAR
Buyers net result	-31.89 NEAR	-33.60 NEAR	-33.61 NEAR	-33.61 NEAR	-33.63 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+22.49 NEAR	+22.49 NEAR	+22.49 NEAR	+22.49 NEAR	+22.49 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x
Holders	5	4	5	5	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.8% · 4 of 19 hold	0.1% · 1 of 19 hold	0.1% · 1 of 19 hold
Other early buyers	1.7% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	3.5% · 20 wallets	0.1% · 20 wallets	0.1% · 20 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	96.5%	99.9%	99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	34 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	109 s after buying · transaction	+0.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 13.7 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.5 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	38 s · transaction	33.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.95 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.6 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	38 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+3.73 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of alola.near · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	38 s · transaction	33.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+5.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5	c1530757855c0d4…15012	41 s · transaction	19.90 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-2.01 NEAR	none found
6	alola.near	48 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	not sold	-0.28 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 13.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7	gakusahliat.near	49 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 14.4 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	sessssssssss.near	56 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.44 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 8.3 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
9	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	64 s · transaction	29.85 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-2.66 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 15.5 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.4 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
10	6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d	69 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	104 s after buying · transaction	-0.78 NEAR	pair bought within 20.8 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.4 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11	someonetobeloved.near	83 s · transaction	24.88 NEAR	101 s after buying · transaction	-3.09 NEAR	pair bought within 44.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18	92 s · transaction	0.20 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
13	4282ce57357f41f…87b2d	94 s · transaction	5.97 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.72 NEAR	pair bought within 1.8 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.0 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.3 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
14	panjipetualang.near	105 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 17.0 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.6 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15	cutelace2414.near	106 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	-8.87 NEAR	pair bought within 15.8 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.5 s of lambadaa.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	aceng03.near	2.0 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	58 s after buying · transaction	-3.04 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 17.0 s of panjipetualang.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.6 s of slaynz.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of ruggerino.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
17	lambadaa.near	2.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	100 s after buying · transaction	-10.28 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 1.7 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.5 s of cutelace2414.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.7 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
18	ruggerino.near	2.2 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	-1.38 NEAR	pair bought within 11.3 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	slaynz.near	2.3 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	48 s after buying · transaction	-9.43 NEAR	pair bought within 16.6 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.3 s of barrey.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.3 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	barrey.near	3.3 min · transaction	3.18 NEAR	76 s after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	pair bought within 59.3 s of slaynz.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of olivineprotocol.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-27 16:59 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-27 17:31 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine-2.nearlytrade.near	0 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-27 18:22 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine-3.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	undefined	history: launch only
2026-09-27 19:04 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine-4.nearlytrade.near	70 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-27 19:17 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine-5.nearlytrade.near	70 High retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-27 22:26 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine-6.nearlytrade.near	50 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-28 20:14 UTC	nearly.trade	olivine-11.nearlytrade.near	75 High retro	rug	history: launch only