ORE nearly.trade

ore.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch ore.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1773 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 67 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: nearore.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -15.73 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.96 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 67% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 16:01:33 UTC · block 218078454 · history: launch only
Transaction	4uiJL7gZjuyV1…Lj3M9
Creator	nearore.near explorer
Pool	ore.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 07:10 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	759.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	21	21	21	21
Buyers spent	230.50 NEAR	288.20 NEAR	288.20 NEAR	288.20 NEAR	288.20 NEAR
Buyers net result	+37.10 NEAR	-5.19 NEAR	-9.80 NEAR	-10.50 NEAR	-15.73 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.96 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.46x	1.46x	1.46x	1.46x	1.46x
Holders	14	9	9	7	3
Top 10 holders' share	97.7%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	17.1% · 13 of 14 hold	6.3% · 6 of 16 hold	5.8% · 3 of 16 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	0.9% · 3 of 5 hold	0.1% · 1 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	17.2% · 16 wallets	7.2% · 21 wallets	5.9% · 21 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	82.8%	92.8%	94.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.7%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	77 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.82 NEAR	pair bought within 1.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.8 s of supremegay.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	78 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	7.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.49 NEAR	pair bought within 1.3 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.6 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	90 s · transaction	1.48 NEAR	6.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.15 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 11.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.8 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	90 s · transaction	36.22 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.42 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of d0tz.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	d0tz.near	90 s · transaction	49.50 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.35 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6	supremegay.near	90 s · transaction	54.45 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+1.63 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 11.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.8 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7	barrey.near	2.0 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	16.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.98 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 54.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	e00953313c9b49e…b1762	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	81 s after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 34.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	2.4 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	-1.01 NEAR	pair bought within 22.2 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of imnotnice.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10	imnotnice.near	2.5 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.99 NEAR	pair bought within 7.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	sessssssssss.near	2.9 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 48.8 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.6 s of barrey.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.9 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12	cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486	3.2 min · transaction	14.85 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-3.09 NEAR	pair bought within 17.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.9 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	92befaeab31c07a…0b783	3.7 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	29.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	pair bought within 48.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	b8185e452876272…dff87	3.7 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.25 NEAR	pair bought within 48.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.9 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	bright1818.near	3.7 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	74 s after buying · transaction	-0.24 NEAR	none found
16	seanybeagle.near	3.8 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.52 NEAR	none found
17	badriansyahirwa….near	5.4 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	92 s after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	none found
18	468dadda5141b2b…aca93	5.5 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	24.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.98 NEAR	none found
19	hnic.near	6.9 min · transaction	1.20 NEAR	8.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	none found
20	alola.near	7.1 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 5.4 s of axxe.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearore.near

None known.