OS nearly.trade

os.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (1.800% per buy, 1.800% per sell; creator_bps 7500, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch os.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1696 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 34 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 131.7% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: nearresearch.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 01:00:40 UTC, 744.4 min after the launch: HYD75WvdyJQgE…JAEJc.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -95.07 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.83 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 34% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 12:36:16 UTC · block 218058488 · history: launch only
Transaction2AGHYHrbP9twA…XLXvA
Creatornearresearch.near explorer
Poolos.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy15.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 75.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-06 01:47 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-06 01:47 UTC
Price now0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.33x the peak
Outside buyers in profit22 of 71 · 31.0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 13 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%131.7%
Dev's first sell after launch————744.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2251697071
Buyers spent418.24 NEAR1,072.78 NEAR1,277.63 NEAR1,327.28 NEAR1,328.87 NEAR
Buyers net result+52.01 NEAR+277.15 NEAR-13.51 NEAR-79.13 NEAR-95.07 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%131.7%
Insiders' net result+8.59 NEAR+21.72 NEAR+8.34 NEAR+2.84 NEAR+4.83 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.88x2.56x2.80x2.80x2.80x
Holders173930206
Top 10 holders' share91.1%68.8%84.2%83.7%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.4% · holds 1.4% · holds 1.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 12.6% · 8 of 11 hold 6.3% · 5 of 13 hold 0.4% · 2 of 13 hold
Other early buyers 7.0% · 8 of 11 hold 11.9% · 15 of 17 hold 6.5% · 9 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)19.6% · 22 wallets18.3% · 30 wallets7.0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)79.0%80.3%91.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)91.1%68.8%83.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder93.3% · 1 merged68.8% · 1 merged83.7% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 justw.near 14 s · transaction 35.00 NEAR 116 s after buying · transaction +23.27 NEAR none found
2 01340eaadfc3648…b7491 14 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +1.55 NEAR none found
3 maleurial2626.near 15 s · transaction 18.85 NEAR 8.6 min after buying · transaction +5.10 NEAR none found
4 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 29 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR not sold +0.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 15.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5 5ef2af180986e30…a04a5 29 s · transaction 74.25 NEAR 49.0 min after buying · transaction -1.67 NEAR
pair bought within 26.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 irene.user.intear.near 41 s · transaction 39.60 NEAR 12.4 min after buying · transaction +13.53 NEAR
pair bought within 13.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 f0e0911c34bd45d…ada75 42 s · transaction 12.92 NEAR not sold -2.14 NEAR none found
8 wetdish835.near 42 s · transaction 14.38 NEAR 14.7 min after buying · transaction +4.40 NEAR none found
9 kindmouse4608.near 42 s · transaction 16.86 NEAR 11.8 min after buying · transaction +9.19 NEAR none found
10 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 44 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR 33.4 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 11.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.0 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11 js1112s.near 48 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 28.6 min after buying · transaction +0.36 NEAR
pair bought within 7.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.9 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 52 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 13.5 min after buying · transaction +15.22 NEAR
pair bought within 22.9 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.1 s of tobrutz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13 e8a162641a55288…58210 55 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 98 s after buying · transaction -3.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 0.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.7 s of js1112s.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.7 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
14 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 55 s · transaction 39.70 NEAR 5.9 min after buying · transaction +0.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 0.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.4 s of js1112s.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
15 teend2.near 56 s · transaction 75.89 NEAR 103 s after buying · transaction -5.92 NEAR
pair bought within 4.0 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.0 s of tobrutz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 b8185e452876272…dff87 63 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.29 NEAR
pair bought within 8.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.4 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17 supremeanal.near 76 s · transaction 100.00 NEAR 91 s after buying · transaction -10.68 NEAR none found
18 tobrutz.near 79 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction -0.41 NEAR
pair bought within 27.1 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.0 s of teend2.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 551f3c8e3099f50…08ada 86 s · transaction 13.89 NEAR not sold -4.52 NEAR none found
20 nearholdr.near 110 s · transaction 4.00 NEAR not sold -1.47 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearresearch.near

None known.