OUT nearly.trade

out.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch out.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (bb6d9ad38c735bab0e32877938d21a38e318c13eaf7031336c5802d86e45aab3) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 6 % (762 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 35.50 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 117.8% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: 71b8e89a04ecd9811f074…cb855 (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 02:21:49 UTC, 13.1 min after the launch: AyBtGipd8ttMh…KhGxK.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -35.50 NEAR · insiders' net result: -1.36 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 02:08:41 UTC · block 217714743 · history: launch only
Transaction12UkdUhy51Dmh…oPDoK
Creator71b8e89a04ecd9811f074690114c10b36ed6a28cfc37926bd922c09f197cb855 explorer
Poolout.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 07:27 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—117.8%117.8%117.8%117.8%
Dev's first sell after launch—13.1 min13.1 min13.1 min13.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2130303030
Buyers spent327.47 NEAR485.75 NEAR485.75 NEAR485.75 NEAR485.75 NEAR
Buyers net result+85.02 NEAR-34.01 NEAR-35.22 NEAR-35.50 NEAR-35.62 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—117.8%117.8%117.8%117.8%
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR-1.36 NEAR-1.36 NEAR-1.36 NEAR-1.36 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.69x1.95x1.95x1.95x1.95x
Holders229543
Top 10 holders' share76.3%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle 12.3% · 8 of 8 hold 0% · 0 of 8 hold 0% · 0 of 8 hold
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 6.7% · 5 of 5 hold 0.1% · 1 of 9 hold 0.1% · 1 of 9 hold
Other early buyers 4.3% · 8 of 8 hold 2.4% · 7 of 13 hold 0.2% · 2 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)23.4% · 21 wallets2.5% · 30 wallets0.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)76.6%97.5%99.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)76.3%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.3% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 6 s · transaction 15.44 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +6.69 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (20.00 NEAR, 175.7 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of fafc3e304223363…837e9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 6 s · transaction 21.08 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +1.62 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 97.5 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc 6 s · transaction 16.62 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +1.29 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 97.5 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 6 s · transaction 18.28 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +3.96 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (45.00 NEAR, 96.2 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5 33c9de738ea6e3c…21599 6 s · transaction 20.22 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +2.68 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 97.5 min before the launch) · transaction
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0abc765453a9cfd…c34fd · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 0abc765453a9cfd…c34fd 6 s · transaction 20.73 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 97.5 min before the launch) · transaction
pair bought within 0.0 s of 33c9de738ea6e3c…21599 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 6 s · transaction 26.18 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction -5.01 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 97.5 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8 fafc3e304223363…837e9 6 s · transaction 16.47 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +2.64 NEAR
bundle one of 8 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (2.82 NEAR, 87.5 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9 alola.near 16 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR not sold -0.40 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 22.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 38 s · transaction 10.38 NEAR 12.7 min after buying · transaction -2.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 22.1 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.3 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11 e8a162641a55288…58210 42 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 11.9 min after buying · transaction +1.75 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 26.2 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.5 s of oyennn.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 oyennn.near 55 s · transaction 49.75 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction +4.64 NEAR
pair bought within 12.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.7 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 arnkrnfh.near 86 s · transaction 35.00 NEAR 12.7 min after buying · transaction -11.45 NEAR
pair bought within 47.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 ea2d15e5771412c…b6cf5 2.4 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 10.8 min after buying · transaction -0.61 NEAR none found
15 13ec39837af5ec9…d1b62 3.0 min · transaction 9.95 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -0.82 NEAR none found
16 ruggerino.near 3.4 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction -0.20 NEAR none found
17 sharpdegen.near 3.5 min · transaction 4.60 NEAR 13.6 min after buying · transaction -1.81 NEAR none found
18 nihalchand.near 3.6 min · transaction 3.50 NEAR not sold -1.43 NEAR none found
19 d27b78cc2c27c4d…5cabb 4.0 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 9.2 min after buying · transaction -0.0049 NEAR none found
20 a98e726c755db35…a3255 4.6 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction -0.41 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 71b8e89a04ecd9811f074…cb855

None known.