PAKT nearly.trade

pakt.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch pakt.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (5c33c6218d47e00ef229f60da78d0897e1ee9665312550b8afd5f9c7bc6957d2) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1646 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. outside buyers' net result -0.03 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 78 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: pakt.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 08:59:10 UTC, 43.0 min after the launch: D4nJM1SfC55ZR…PVPPu.
Outside buyers' net result: -6.61 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.42 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 78% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 08:16:10 UTC · block 218035371 · history: launch only
Transaction	GjFWFzSUe6q7e…CVeEd
Creator	pakt.near explorer
Pool	pakt.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	4.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 15:29 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-10 15:29 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.76x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	4 of 16 · 25%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	43.0 min	43.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	14	14	15	16
Buyers spent	150.11 NEAR	160.03 NEAR	160.03 NEAR	160.73 NEAR	162.73 NEAR
Buyers net result	+5.88 NEAR	+4.50 NEAR	+2.58 NEAR	-0.03 NEAR	-6.61 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+0.75 NEAR	+0.70 NEAR	+0.62 NEAR	+0.42 NEAR	+0.42 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.26x	1.26x	1.26x	1.26x	1.26x
Holders	11	9	7	5	5
Top 10 holders' share	99.2%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.4% · holds	0.4% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	8.8% · 9 of 11 hold	7.7% · 7 of 11 hold	6.2% · 3 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	0.8% · 1 of 3 hold	0.1% · 1 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	8.8% · 13 wallets	8.5% · 14 wallets	6.3% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	90.8%	91.1%	93.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.2%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	db9077fc36538dd…6c79b	67 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.98 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 1.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	68 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.63 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	68 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	49.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
4	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	69 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.39 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.3 s of neverekt.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	86 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	13.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 18.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.8 s of neverekt.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	neverekt.near	103 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	15.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 34.9 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.5 s of alola.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	jorikkkbro.near	116 s · transaction	9.92 NEAR	16.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.31 NEAR	pair bought within 47.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.8 s of neverekt.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	sessssssssss.near	2.4 min · transaction	8.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 12.5 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of neverekt.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	544dfa1031c3374…7c75d	2.4 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 4.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	alola.near	2.6 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 31.9 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.5 s of neverekt.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	barrey.near	3.1 min · transaction	7.94 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.65 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 31.9 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	5249d63913e1405…591d1	3.6 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	72 s after buying · transaction	-1.39 NEAR	none found
13	b8185e452876272…dff87	4.8 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	none found
14	81bccc4e2d036dd…e2c0e	7.3 min · transaction	9.92 NEAR	26.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.72 NEAR	none found
15	nomasfiat.near	53.6 min · transaction	0.70 NEAR	not sold	-0.0070 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pakt.near

None known.