PATH nearly.trade

path.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch path.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 15 % (1091 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 53 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 107.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: pathnear.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 16:49:26 UTC, 98.0 min after the launch: 4x7o1uTjWWbxj…SguHq.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -42.85 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.69 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 53% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 15:11:28 UTC · block 217793192 · history: launch only
TransactionWnJvJq5ei5xTH…ERyGG
Creatorpathnear.near explorer
Poolpath.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy40.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 02:21 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 02:21 UTC
Price now0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.52x the peak
Outside buyers in profit14 of 41 · 34.1%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 19 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%107.3%
Dev's first sell after launch————98.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2434414141
Buyers spent483.73 NEAR667.07 NEAR759.34 NEAR764.34 NEAR768.34 NEAR
Buyers net result+84.91 NEAR+3.18 NEAR-23.72 NEAR-30.33 NEAR-42.85 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%107.3%
Insiders' net result+30.20 NEAR+17.01 NEAR+11.04 NEAR+8.76 NEAR+1.69 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.71x1.74x1.74x1.74x1.74x
Holders221717115
Top 10 holders' share80.7%96.4%95.9%100.0%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.7% · holds 3.7% · holds 3.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 12.1% · 15 of 18 hold 4.4% · 6 of 19 hold 3.8% · 4 of 19 hold
Other early buyers 10.3% · 5 of 6 hold 7.8% · 6 of 11 hold 3.7% · 2 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)22.4% · 24 wallets12.3% · 30 wallets7.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)74.0%84.0%88.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)80.7%96.4%100.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100.0% · 2 merged99.7% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 ilalalalalala.near 29 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +1.18 NEAR none found
2 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 29 s · transaction 1.98 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +1.20 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 15.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.3 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
3 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 39 s · transaction 33.84 NEAR 118 s after buying · transaction +0.52 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
4 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 39 s · transaction 33.84 NEAR 118 s after buying · transaction +1.98 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
5 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 39 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction +0.85 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 9.6 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.7 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.1 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
6 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 39 s · transaction 21.90 NEAR 113 s after buying · transaction +2.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
7 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 39 s · transaction 33.84 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction +0.91 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
8 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 39 s · transaction 33.84 NEAR 113 s after buying · transaction +2.45 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
9 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 45 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR not sold -0.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 3.5 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
10 alola.near 48 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 22.7 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 9.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
11 cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 54 s · transaction 19.80 NEAR 113 s after buying · transaction -0.90 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 5.3 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.1 s of lambadaa.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
12 0dcab0ca2c0d3dd…cb7ed 54 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction -0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 5.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13 13ec39837af5ec9…d1b62 55 s · transaction 6.94 NEAR 100 s after buying · transaction +0.75 NEAR
pair bought within 16.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.2 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
14 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 63 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction +4.01 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 21.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.9 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
15 997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1 65 s · transaction 9.92 NEAR 5.4 min after buying · transaction +3.17 NEAR
pair bought within 19.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
16 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 71 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 74 s after buying · transaction -0.68 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 23.2 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
17 lambadaa.near 82 s · transaction 52.00 NEAR not sold -8.80 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 33.4 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
18 579b7294974b54d…30203 85 s · transaction 14.00 NEAR 20.7 min after buying · transaction -0.78 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 36.7 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
19 e09070f676ec1dd…18ca0 115 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR not sold -4.53 NEAR none found
20 313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c 2.5 min · transaction 0.10 NEAR 49.0 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pathnear.near

None known.