PEARPE nearly.trade

pearpe.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch pearpe.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (sieucaro.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1703 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 85 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 477.9% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: raiwallet1.tg (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 15:16:27 UTC, 142.6 min after the launch: 74EwjjBkKPEuY…CBR6r.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -3.33 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.38 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 85% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 12:53:53 UTC · block 218059987 · history: launch only
TransactionBfbuit3Eggmik…XEy4G
Creatorraiwallet1.tg explorer
Poolpearpe.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.10 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 23:57 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 23:57 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.84x the peak
Outside buyers in profit3 of 9 · 33.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 9 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%477.9%
Dev's first sell after launch————142.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)89999
Buyers spent83.00 NEAR88.00 NEAR88.00 NEAR88.00 NEAR88.00 NEAR
Buyers net result+4.99 NEAR-1.95 NEAR-2.58 NEAR-2.58 NEAR-3.33 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%477.9%
Insiders' net result+0.01 NEAR+0.0045 NEAR+0.0017 NEAR+0.0017 NEAR+0.38 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.14x1.15x1.15x1.15x1.15x
Holders93332
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account <0.01% · holds <0.01% · holds <0.01% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 7.4% · 8 of 8 hold 2.1% · 2 of 9 hold 2.1% · 2 of 9 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)7.4% · 8 wallets2.1% · 9 wallets2.1% · 9 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)92.6%97.8%97.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 9 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 118 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold -0.06 NEAR
pair bought within 57.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.9 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 2.4 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 6.5 min after buying · transaction +0.11 NEAR
pair bought within 34.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.9 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 2.9 min · transaction 3.00 NEAR not sold -0.10 NEAR
pair bought within 57.3 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.4 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
4 louduser4868.near 4.3 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 94 s after buying · transaction +0.34 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches
pair bought within 47.8 s of meteorrrr.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.9 s of unknownchain.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 e00953313c9b49e…b1762 4.4 min · transaction 4.85 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 2.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 3347dd8076331ad…52407 4.4 min · transaction 0.20 NEAR 90 s after buying · transaction +0.0011 NEAR
pair bought within 2.6 s of e00953313c9b49e…b1762 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.7 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.2 s of louduser4868.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 4.5 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 5.4 min after buying · transaction -2.19 NEAR
pair bought within 4.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 unknownchain.near 4.7 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 60 s after buying · transaction -0.31 NEAR
pair bought within 23.9 s of meteorrrr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.9 s of louduser4868.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 meteorrrr.near 5.1 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 58 s after buying · transaction -0.37 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 47.8 s of louduser4868.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.9 s of unknownchain.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of raiwallet1.tg

None known.