PHIRE nearly.trade

phire.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch phire.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 41 % (799 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 15.76 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: provenhire.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-29 14:00:10 UTC, 39.9 min after the launch: 8dMcUX96seFLc…TMB95.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -15.76 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.66 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-29 13:20:17 UTC · block 222129876 · history: launch only
TransactionJDf9cnN6fV8tW…7QNf4
Creatorprovenhire.near explorer
Poolphire.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy23.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-05 22:23 UTC
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch———39.9 min39.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2326292929
Buyers spent331.60 NEAR364.41 NEAR400.52 NEAR400.52 NEAR400.52 NEAR
Buyers net result+69.42 NEAR+80.88 NEAR+79.70 NEAR-15.76 NEAR-15.78 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%100%100%
Insiders' net result+14.09 NEAR+15.34 NEAR+15.35 NEAR+0.66 NEAR+0.66 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.67x1.73x1.76x1.76x1.76x
Holders20212111
Top 10 holders' share79.3%79.0%79.0%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.1% · holds 2.1% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle 5.3% · 3 of 3 hold 5.6% · 3 of 3 hold 0% · 0 of 3 hold
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 2.5% · 7 of 10 hold 2.4% · 6 of 10 hold 0% · 0 of 10 hold
Other early buyers 12.6% · 9 of 10 hold 13.6% · 11 of 13 hold 0.4% · 1 of 16 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)20.4% · 23 wallets21.5% · 26 wallets0.4% · 29 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)77.5%76.3%99.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)79.3%79.0%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder92.2% · 1 merged92.2% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction +0.59 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
2 tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 31.7 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 1.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
3 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 35.0 min after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 1.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4 dolph.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction +0.15 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
5 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 4 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 81 s after buying · transaction +1.28 NEAR
pair bought within 0.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
6 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 4 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 31.6 min after buying · transaction -0.35 NEAR
pair bought within 1.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
7 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 6 s · transaction 22.32 NEAR 39.8 min after buying · transaction -1.39 NEAR
pair bought within 3.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8 shyram2596.near 24 s · transaction 24.00 NEAR 31.1 min after buying · transaction +7.08 NEAR
bundle one of 3 wallets that bought within 24 s of the launch and were funded by 30d6205b89e02d2…03f62 (29.00 NEAR, 37.8 min before the launch) · transaction
9 loudyam1707.near 24 s · transaction 24.00 NEAR 31.2 min after buying · transaction +0.12 NEAR
bundle one of 3 wallets that bought within 24 s of the launch and were funded by 30d6205b89e02d2…03f62 (28.00 NEAR, 38.3 min before the launch) · transaction
10 highnode3707.near 24 s · transaction 24.00 NEAR 31.2 min after buying · transaction -2.93 NEAR
bundle one of 3 wallets that bought within 24 s of the launch and were funded by 30d6205b89e02d2…03f62 (27.00 NEAR, 38.9 min before the launch) · transaction
11 funnywiki9984.near 31 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 31.0 min after buying · transaction +6.18 NEAR none found
12 cleanwatch6458.near 31 s · transaction 28.00 NEAR 31.1 min after buying · transaction -0.30 NEAR none found
13 lowdish7528.near 31 s · transaction 28.00 NEAR 31.0 min after buying · transaction +0.26 NEAR none found
14 56c9a6ef438223b….near 35 s · transaction 28.00 NEAR 34 s after buying · transaction +2.24 NEAR
pair bought within 32.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
15 alola.near 36 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction +0.17 NEAR
pair bought within 31.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
16 malenewt6816.near 41 s · transaction 28.00 NEAR 30.9 min after buying · transaction -0.32 NEAR none found
17 sorryhost9817.near 42 s · transaction 26.00 NEAR 30.9 min after buying · transaction -3.76 NEAR none found
18 shyapp6765.near 42 s · transaction 26.00 NEAR 30.9 min after buying · transaction -5.85 NEAR none found
19 rawlemon1282.near 62 s · transaction 28.00 NEAR 30.6 min after buying · transaction -7.57 NEAR none found
20 softdove3960.near 76 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 22 s after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
pair bought within 40.6 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of provenhire.near

None known.