PIPECAT nearly.trade

pipecat.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
8 of the 8 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 8 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 84%.
Evidence: launch zero-3.nearlytrade.near, launch alternet.nearlytr….near, launch memo-2.nearlytrade.near, launch cholow.nearlytrade.near, launch codebara.nearlytr….near
+20
Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 400, sell_bps 400, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch pipecat.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 65.97 NEAR 1 min before the launch from norbitbot.near, whose earlier launch zero-3.nearlytrade.near (made by zeroexperiment.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 5AXNRyTQaZMyGPrZk…8LjbA, launch zero-3.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (460 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 26.69 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: pipecatbot.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 18:29:40 UTC, 105 s after the launch: CBAyCFJNXxgCd…8FVE6.
Outside buyers' net result: -26.69 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.36 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 18:27:56 UTC · block 217668278 · history: launch only
Transaction	5xRaSC1PWBfmA…WxGbN
Creator	pipecatbot.near explorer
Pool	pipecat.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	30.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-28 18:46 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	105 s	105 s	105 s	105 s	105 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	17	17	17	17	17
Buyers spent	237.83 NEAR	237.83 NEAR	237.83 NEAR	237.83 NEAR	237.83 NEAR
Buyers net result	-26.65 NEAR	-26.69 NEAR	-26.69 NEAR	-26.69 NEAR	-26.69 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+4.36 NEAR	+4.36 NEAR	+4.36 NEAR	+4.36 NEAR	+4.36 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.25x	1.25x	1.25x	1.25x	1.25x
Holders	3	1	1	4	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.1% · 2 of 16 hold	0% · 0 of 16 hold	0% · 0 of 16 hold
Other early buyers	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.1% · 17 wallets	0% · 17 wallets	0% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.9%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	36 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 38.9 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.5 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2	6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d	48 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	70 s after buying · transaction	+1.87 NEAR	pair bought within 4.7 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.5 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3	c964f0a446c4f56…8802e	52 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	67 s after buying · transaction	+0.35 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 4.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.7 s of kimpet77.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	gakusahliat.near	65 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 7.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	72 s · transaction	29.85 NEAR	38 s after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 24.5 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.7 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
6	kimpet77.near	75 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.99 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 38.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.7 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.4 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
7	cheapzip9640.near	76 s · transaction	59.70 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-11.80 NEAR	pair bought within 3.6 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.3 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8	8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18	91 s · transaction	0.20 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 43.5 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.0 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	badriansyahirwa….near	93 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 56.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.6 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.7 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10	5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961	101 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	87 s after buying · transaction	-1.73 NEAR	pair bought within 13.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.9 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.6 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	1122233413123.near	101 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	-3.51 NEAR	pair bought within 7.7 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.6 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.6 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be	107 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	38 s after buying · transaction	-2.49 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 6.6 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.3 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13	panjipetualang.near	108 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	34 s after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 5.4 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.1 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
14	aceng03.near	114 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	42 s after buying · transaction	-2.50 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 6.7 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.6 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.7 s of kimpet77.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
15	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	2.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	23 s after buying · transaction	-2.85 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 6.7 s of aceng03.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.4 s of kimpet77.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.1 s of panjipetualang.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16	4282ce57357f41f…87b2d	2.4 min · transaction	2.98 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-0.61 NEAR	pair bought within 51.0 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.3 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.7 s of panjipetualang.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17	b091d7b6079f2eb…fd118	2.7 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.18 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pipecatbot.near

None known.