PL4 nearly.trade

pl4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch pl4.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (05520a9b064f5d81477259483a4ad56232c66b97ec2552ffeebe157262fcc122) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2139 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -12.58 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.06 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 78% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-02 16:29:51 UTC · block 218227427 · history: launch only
Transaction	76vWpnSmgPv2f…pphh2
Creator	r3ndaik.tg explorer
Pool	pl4.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	10.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-12 13:55 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-12 13:55 UTC
Price now	1.86x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.90x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	41 of 94 · 43.6%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	2.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	3.0% · 6 of 7 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 13 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	25	31	31	32	39
Buyers spent	216.69 NEAR	300.94 NEAR	303.11 NEAR	309.06 NEAR	331.24 NEAR
Buyers net result	+32.24 NEAR	-11.30 NEAR	-10.06 NEAR	-10.24 NEAR	-12.58 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+8.24 NEAR	+2.02 NEAR	+2.45 NEAR	+2.50 NEAR	+2.06 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.44x	1.44x	1.44x	1.44x	1.44x
Holders	25	18	17	19	23
Top 10 holders' share	83.7%	88.8%	90.4%	91.1%	83.7%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	2.0% · holds	2.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	11.6% · 13 of 13 hold	0.2% · 3 of 13 hold	0.1% · 1 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	4.7% · 11 of 12 hold	5.0% · 14 of 17 hold	5.0% · 13 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	16.2% · 25 wallets	5.2% · 30 wallets	5.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	81.9%	92.8%	92.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	83.7%	88.8%	91.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	94.2% · 3 merged	88.8% · 2 merged	91.1% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	neverekt.near	19 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	36.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.15 NEAR	none found
2	kolyamelnik2351…28.tg	55 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.52 NEAR	none found
3	oleksandra_mamo…va.tg	61 s · transaction	4.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.03 NEAR	none found
4	nirupalar.tg	92 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.45 NEAR	none found
5	3347dd8076331ad…52407	98 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	11.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 19.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.7 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	congos.tg	108 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.74 NEAR	none found
7	maxbet84.tg	114 s · transaction	4.50 NEAR	not sold	-0.43 NEAR	none found
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	117 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	+7.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 14.4 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	2.2 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 14.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	kimpet77.near	2.3 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	10.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	pair bought within 20.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.6 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	lambadaa.near	2.3 min · transaction	45.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.97 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 7.4 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of kimpet77.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12	nfsh.near	2.5 min · transaction	14.85 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.89 NEAR	none found
13	etgua.tg	2.6 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.37 NEAR	none found
14	e8a162641a55288…58210	2.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	9.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 23.9 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
15	b8185e452876272…dff87	2.7 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.11 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 30.3 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
16	ff8c36a0da37161…3380f	2.8 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.93 NEAR	none found
17	sessssssssss.near	3.1 min · transaction	13.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 52.1 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
18	a3cb153394cd999…41e6c	3.3 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0052 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 13.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
19	e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7	3.3 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	111 s after buying · transaction	+0.17 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 13.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
20	5249d63913e1405…591d1	3.3 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	118 s after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches pair bought within 2.8 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of r3ndaik.tg

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-01 15:14 UTC	nearly.trade	nuvelorian.nearlytrade.near	50 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only