PLAID nearly.trade

plaid.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch plaid.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1507 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 77 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: 72a005f5e3ea9fc874e97…93927 (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -8.03 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.68 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 77% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-30 18:38:28 UTC · block 217952265 · history: launch only
Transaction	HA9k9FUPZneju…NTaW2
Creator	72a005f5e3ea9fc874e97affa98bd9a7f50be4d4584f4774b471a445d2d93927 explorer
Pool	plaid.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	5.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 17:44 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-01 17:44 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.76x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	1 of 12 · 8.3%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	1170.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	12	12	12	12
Buyers spent	140.39 NEAR	145.35 NEAR	145.35 NEAR	145.35 NEAR	145.35 NEAR
Buyers net result	+15.74 NEAR	-5.99 NEAR	-7.21 NEAR	-7.26 NEAR	-8.03 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.68 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.28x	1.29x	1.29x	1.29x	1.29x
Holders	11	3	2	4	2
Top 10 holders' share	99.2%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	11.8% · 11 of 11 hold	3.3% · 3 of 12 hold	1.9% · 1 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	11.8% · 11 wallets	3.3% · 12 wallets	1.9% · 12 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	88.2%	96.7%	98.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.2%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 12 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	13.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 18.6 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.5 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2	db9077fc36538dd…6c79b	12 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.52 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 2.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	25 s · transaction	0.99 NEAR	47.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 15.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.7 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	28 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	15.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.96 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 18.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	920b3a669f9f318…ce387	51 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 25.7 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.6 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	3.1 min · transaction	29.92 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.78 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.7 s of wildjaguar2131.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	neverekt.near	3.1 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	wildjaguar2131.near	3.4 min · transaction	49.50 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.66 NEAR	pair bought within 17.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	tuyulz.near	4.4 min · transaction	2.98 NEAR	73 s after buying · transaction	-0.35 NEAR	pair bought within 3.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.3 s of barrey.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	579b7294974b54d…30203	4.4 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	101 s after buying · transaction	-0.73 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 39.2 s of barrey.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.4 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of tuyulz.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	a3cb153394cd999…41e6c	4.8 min · transaction	1.50 NEAR	47 s after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	pair bought within 25.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.8 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	barrey.near	5.1 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.81 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 39.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.3 s of tuyulz.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.8 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 72a005f5e3ea9fc874e97…93927

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-30 18:59 UTC	nearly.trade	dots-4.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	rug	history: launch only