It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (139 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 52.5 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 52.5% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +138.66 NEAR · insiders' net result: +13.29 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 36% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 07:20:53 UTC · block 217454920 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-11 03:26 UTC
Price now
1.14x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.17x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
51 of 160 · 31.9%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
52.5%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
872.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
1
1
5
23
154
Buyers spent
10.00 NEAR
10.00 NEAR
86.49 NEAR
473.00 NEAR
4,895.07 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.39 NEAR
-0.39 NEAR
+2.96 NEAR
+173.24 NEAR
+138.66 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
52.5%
Insiders' net result
-0.11 NEAR
-0.11 NEAR
+1.32 NEAR
+10.07 NEAR
+13.29 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.00x
1.00x
1.12x
1.99x
6.64x
Holders
2
2
6
25
59
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
69.2%
59.8%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.9% · holds
0.9% · holds
0.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
29.1% · 21 of 23 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0% · 1 wallets
0% · 1 wallets
29.1% · 23 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
99.0%
99.0%
69.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
69.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
69.2% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.