PONEARLY nearly.trade

ponearly.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 1.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).

The largest funder's (realmicahlamar.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 29 % (740 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 0.24 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: nearlypons.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-21 10:51:55 UTC, 76 s after the launch: GMRXsG67UM9Gx…8KKky.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.24 NEAR · insiders' net result: -1.76 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-21 10:50:39 UTC · block 220935986 · history: launch only
TransactionDTVRt2fMwKwFF…2zXSL
Creatornearlypons.near explorer
Poolponearly.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy35.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-21 10:52 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-21 10:52 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.91x the peak
Outside buyers in profit1 of 5 · 20%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch76 s76 s76 s76 s76 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)55555
Buyers spent7.00 NEAR7.00 NEAR7.00 NEAR7.00 NEAR7.00 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.24 NEAR-0.24 NEAR-0.24 NEAR-0.24 NEAR-0.24 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result-1.76 NEAR-1.76 NEAR-1.76 NEAR-1.76 NEAR-1.76 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.08x1.08x1.08x1.08x1.08x
Holders00000
Top 10 holders' share—————

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0% · 0 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 5 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)0% · 5 wallets0% · 5 wallets0% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)———
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder———
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 57 s after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR
2 bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 74 s after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR
3 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 74 s after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR
4 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 82 s after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR
5 ro52.near 6 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 57 s after buying · transaction -0.11 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearlypons.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-21 10:56 UTC nearly.trade nearxrp.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only