POUNCE nearly.trade

pounce.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch pounce.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1722 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +164.34 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 56% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 14:05:45 UTC · block 218066827 · history: launch only
Transaction	J2KF35bcPR7Rx…rfMg7
Creator	pouncetrade.near explorer
Pool	pounce.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	43.37 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 15:55 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-06 15:55 UTC
Price now	0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.24x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	37 of 108 · 34.2%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 15 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	40	55	67	107
Buyers spent	396.09 NEAR	1,136.33 NEAR	1,509.35 NEAR	1,848.74 NEAR	2,767.39 NEAR
Buyers net result	+70.42 NEAR	+277.38 NEAR	+271.04 NEAR	+700.46 NEAR	+164.34 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.58x	2.58x	2.98x	3.32x	3.92x
Holders	17	36	39	48	46
Top 10 holders' share	95.6%	77.0%	76.1%	69.3%	87.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	14.4% · 13 of 15 hold	6.0% · 10 of 15 hold	3.5% · 7 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	7.0% · 3 of 3 hold	19.1% · 13 of 15 hold	21.6% · 9 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	21.4% · 18 wallets	25.1% · 30 wallets	25.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	78.6%	74.9%	74.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	95.6%	77.0%	69.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.1% · 2 merged	77.9% · 2 merged	69.3% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	22 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+45.79 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	23 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+11.07 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	23 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+4.83 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	badriansyahirwa….near	59 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	8.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.52 NEAR	pair bought within 56.7 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	axxe.near	66 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+20.03 NEAR	pair bought within 24.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	3347dd8076331ad…52407	81 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	7.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.37 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 9.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	90 s · transaction	89.90 NEAR	40 s after buying · transaction	+10.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 24.9 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	90 s · transaction	86.55 NEAR	11.1 min after buying · transaction	+33.51 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 24.9 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	e8a162641a55288…58210	98 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	23.3 min after buying · transaction	+3.54 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 17.6 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	sickjuice4900.near	115 s · transaction	80.00 NEAR	not sold	+83.19 NEAR	none found
11	alola.near	115 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.46 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 24.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12	fd45b6de05c0a80…1ff4e	2.4 min · transaction	12.00 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	+15.51 NEAR	pair bought within 26.2 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	b8185e452876272…dff87	2.4 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.65 NEAR	pair bought within 29.2 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	supremegay.near	2.5 min · transaction	119.04 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	+37.28 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 37.3 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	33bd7e2867fbf99…991b5	3.0 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	none found
16	shitwuu.near	3.5 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	not sold	+77.36 NEAR	none found
17	kimpet77.near	4.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+4.97 NEAR	pair bought within 16.0 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	ebisidiaidi.near	4.2 min · transaction	200.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+24.36 NEAR	pair bought within 16.0 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	freshuser3857.near	5.1 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	25.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.19 NEAR	none found
20	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	5.2 min · transaction	1.48 NEAR	not sold	+1.32 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pouncetrade.near

None known.