PRIVY nearly.trade

privy.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch privy.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (kryptheda.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (456 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 52 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 203.6% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: miskeen.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 06:03:35 UTC, 704.3 min after the launch: 2qoVH1bfm77Et…rLWTd.
Outside buyers' net result: -18.96 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.17 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 52% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 18:19:18 UTC · block 217667402 · history: launch only
Transaction	6pruk6z2xWqZG…8e852
Creator	miskeen.near explorer
Pool	privy.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.14 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 06:03 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	203.6%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	704.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	20	21	22	22	22
Buyers spent	402.30 NEAR	542.95 NEAR	557.95 NEAR	557.95 NEAR	557.95 NEAR
Buyers net result	+145.38 NEAR	-17.03 NEAR	-17.93 NEAR	-17.36 NEAR	-18.96 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	203.6%
Insiders' net result	+0.20 NEAR	-0.09 NEAR	-0.10 NEAR	-0.09 NEAR	+1.17 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.88x	1.88x	1.88x	1.88x	1.88x
Holders	21	8	4	6	5
Top 10 holders' share	91.8%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.0% · holds	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	24.6% · 16 of 17 hold	2.2% · 4 of 17 hold	2.6% · 1 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	2.8% · 3 of 3 hold	0.2% · 2 of 4 hold	0.1% · 1 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	27.4% · 20 wallets	2.4% · 21 wallets	2.7% · 22 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	72.6%	97.6%	97.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	91.8%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.5% · 4 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d	45 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+15.17 NEAR	pair bought within 9.7 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.6 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2	c964f0a446c4f56…8802e	55 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.32 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 9.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.9 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	badriansyahirwa….near	67 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 6.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.9 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.2 s of supremegay.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	sessssssssss.near	74 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+2.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 28.9 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.9 s of supremegay.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.3 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5	supremegay.near	84 s · transaction	54.72 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+9.61 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 35.7 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.2 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6	syndi95.near	119 s · transaction	24.88 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+4.13 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 35.7 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.5 s of snuffdog.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	fivestar4ever.near	2.4 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	none found
8	8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18	2.5 min · transaction	0.20 NEAR	20.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 20.2 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	supremeanal.near	2.6 min · transaction	64.72 NEAR	11.8 min after buying · transaction	-16.28 NEAR	pair bought within 57.7 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.8 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	snuffdog.near	2.7 min · transaction	14.92 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.80 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 40.5 s of syndi95.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.6 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.9 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	glacial_anomaly….near	2.8 min · transaction	2.74 NEAR	14.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.95 NEAR	none found
12	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	2.8 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+1.71 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 58.9 s of aceng03.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.0 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.8 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
13	ebisidiaidi.near	2.9 min · transaction	100.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+7.68 NEAR	pair bought within 14.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.1 s of syndi95.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.6 s of snuffdog.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	3.2 min · transaction	118.90 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-10.26 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 24.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of barrey.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.6 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15	bryan0023.near	3.4 min · transaction	0.75 NEAR	3.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	pair bought within 9.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	barrey.near	3.5 min · transaction	2.98 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.73 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 17.9 s of aceng03.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.9 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17	80289da0a50f047…d6989	3.5 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-7.50 NEAR	pair bought within 16.0 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.7 s of supremeanal.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
18	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	3.6 min · transaction	24.88 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-2.82 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 24.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.9 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
19	aceng03.near	3.8 min · transaction	11.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-3.18 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 58.9 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.9 s of barrey.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.0 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
20	missoralways.near	4.7 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	-19.67 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of miskeen.near

None known.