PROOFCYCLE nearly.trade

proofcycle-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch proofcycle-2.near….near
  • +5
    The name 'proofcycle' was already used 8 min earlier by another creator (proofcycle.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch proofcycle.nearly….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1710 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 10.54 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: proofcycle.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 13:31:49 UTC, 11.3 min after the launch: 9ZB7ik1vbkfmW…28uBu.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -10.54 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.03 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 13:20:28 UTC · block 218062308 · history: launch only
Transaction9YDVzFpjgr4rM…GX7Ld
Creatorproofcycle.near explorer
Poolproofcycle-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-02 09:04 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%100%105.4%
Dev's first sell after launch—11.3 min11.3 min11.3 min11.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1920202020
Buyers spent188.96 NEAR189.96 NEAR189.96 NEAR189.96 NEAR189.96 NEAR
Buyers net result+7.53 NEAR-10.04 NEAR-10.16 NEAR-10.54 NEAR-11.12 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%100%105.4%
Insiders' net result+4.93 NEAR+0.03 NEAR+0.03 NEAR+0.03 NEAR+1.03 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.28x1.28x1.28x1.28x1.28x
Holders157653
Top 10 holders' share98.3%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.9% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 9.8% · 14 of 19 hold 2.2% · 7 of 19 hold 1.4% · 3 of 19 hold
Other early buyers — 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)9.8% · 19 wallets2.2% · 20 wallets1.4% · 20 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)88.3%97.8%98.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)98.3%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 4 merged100% · 3 merged100% · 3 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b 71 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR not sold -0.76 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches
pair bought within 6.1 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.9 s of neverekt.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a 77 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 46.4 min after buying · transaction -0.44 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 56 of those launches
pair bought within 6.1 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.8 s of neverekt.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 neverekt.near 111 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 32.6 min after buying · transaction -0.22 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches
pair bought within 41.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.9 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4 e8a162641a55288…58210 2.4 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +0.36 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 27.8 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5 cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 2.5 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +0.17 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 19.9 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.7 s of ultra-dolphin-7….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 54.1 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 2.5 min · transaction 35.22 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction -1.85 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 15.7 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.5 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7 roughzone8076.near 2.5 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 20 s after buying · transaction -1.08 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 18 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of sickuser1627.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.2 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8 sickuser1627.near 2.5 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction -1.12 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of roughzone8076.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.2 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9 ultra-dolphin-7….near 2.5 min · transaction 0.10 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction -0.0074 NEAR
pair bought within 4.7 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.2 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 3347dd8076331ad…52407 2.6 min · transaction 0.70 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction +0.0059 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 47.4 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11 alola.near 2.8 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.2 min after buying · transaction -0.21 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 15.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.1 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
12 peekaby.near 2.9 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
pair bought within 33.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.2 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 b8185e452876272…dff87 3.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.16 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 9.4 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
14 badriansyahirwa….near 3.2 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR 19.9 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 25.1 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.7 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
15 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 3.4 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction -2.39 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 54.1 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.3 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.7 s of tobrutz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
16 a3cb153394cd999…41e6c 3.6 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR 75 s after buying · transaction +0.0098 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches
pair bought within 13.3 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.1 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.5 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
17 tobrutz.near 3.7 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 83 s after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR
pair bought within 21.7 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.4 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.9 s of teend2.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
18 teend2.near 3.9 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR 65 s after buying · transaction -1.20 NEAR
pair bought within 7.9 s of tobrutz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.6 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 72a005f5e3ea9fc…93927 3.9 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 74 s after buying · transaction -1.09 NEAR
pair bought within 8.5 s of tobrutz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 9b8f63f4a1b1738…f2f06 5.5 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 6.9 min after buying · transaction -0.21 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of proofcycle.near

None known.