QCAT nearly.trade

qcat-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2672 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 79 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: scorp56.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-08 04:19:39 UTC, 320.8 min after the launch: F89vw4bNBgw6N…85ABS.
  • Outside buyers' net result: +0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 79% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-07 22:58:48 UTC · block 219001167 · history: launch only
TransactionDSJ9uvVZtTq1T…UXyvb
Creatorscorp56.near explorer
Poolqcat-3.nearlytrade.near|qtc.omft.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 18:11 UTC

14 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit42 394 of 928 outside buyers
Buy pressure0 buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak15 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity0 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-13 17:01 UTC
Price now10.89x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.15x the peak
Outside buyers in profit394 of 928 · 42.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%100%
Dev's first sell after launch————320.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)0001472
Buyers spent0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%100%
Insiders' net result+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer———1.00x33.00x
Holders1112340
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%28.6%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 4.2% · holds 4.2% · holds 4.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers — — 0.2% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0% · 0 wallets0% · 0 wallets0.2% · 1 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)95.8%95.8%95.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 1 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 kkkkk2.near 35.5 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold -0.0000 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of scorp56.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-27 02:27 UTC nearly.trade doomslug.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 02:27 UTC nearly.trade doomslug-2.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 03:49 UTC nearly.trade alpha.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 04:37 UTC nearly.trade ribbit.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 23:24 UTC nearly.trade ref-2.nearlytrade.near 5 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 00:52 UTC nearly.trade nearssss-2.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only