In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (0.700% per buy, 0.700% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (1434 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 72.1 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 72.1% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -87.53 NEAR · insiders' net result: +107.23 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 48% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-14 00:52:55 UTC · block 219883084 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-08 11:51 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-08 11:51 UTC
Price now
1.32x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.39x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
12 of 55 · 21.8%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
3.5% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
2.7% · 1 of 10 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
72.1%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
1132.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
2
20
27
27
53
Buyers spent
3.00 NEAR
737.67 NEAR
949.87 NEAR
951.87 NEAR
2,026.80 NEAR
Buyers net result
+0.28 NEAR
+151.78 NEAR
-9.81 NEAR
-21.20 NEAR
-87.53 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
2
2
2
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
72.1%
Insiders' net result
+20.38 NEAR
+171.81 NEAR
+60.85 NEAR
+40.91 NEAR
+107.23 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.32x
3.42x
3.42x
3.42x
3.42x
Holders
3
18
17
15
25
Top 10 holders' share
100%
94.3%
99.7%
99.6%
97.1%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
12.6% · holds
9.1% · holds
9.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
3.5% · 1 of 1 hold
3.5% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
18.0% · 7 of 8 hold
2.7% · 1 of 10 hold
Other early buyers
0.2% · 2 of 2 hold
5.9% · 9 of 12 hold
2.4% · 7 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0.2% · 2 wallets
24.0% · 20 wallets
5.1% · 27 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
87.2%
63.5%
82.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
94.3%
99.6%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
96.7% · 1 merged
99.6% · 0 merged
The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.