QCAT nearly.trade

qcat.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (72922668f5f3b71512cf49e0ee5ff0ab65f7d4358f497fbf062d213e2f73caff) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2593 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 46 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 172.2% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: narrowwiki8350.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-07 08:19:33 UTC, 834.2 min after the launch: F6SU8jcGMxB5C…rzXMp.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 46% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-06 18:25:19 UTC · block 218827351 · history: launch only
Transaction	3Dy7MLP7RutbG…pPf83
Creator	narrowwiki8350.near explorer
Pool	qcat.nearlytrade.near\|qtc.omft.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 14:04 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-10 14:04 UTC
Price now	1.06x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.37x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	15 of 64 · 23.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 8 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	172.2%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	175.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	8	9	10	19	46
Buyers spent	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	-0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	172.2%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.14x	1.17x	1.21x	1.62x	2.87x
Holders	7	8	9	18	19
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	76.9%	89.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	0.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.7% · 7 of 8 hold	6.7% · 7 of 8 hold	6.7% · 7 of 8 hold
Other early buyers	—	2.2% · 1 of 1 hold	14.1% · 10 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.7% · 8 wallets	8.9% · 9 wallets	21.6% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	93.3%	91.1%	78.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	76.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	98.2% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	35 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2	94feda709c301ed…63090	36 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	36 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	36 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	36 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	37 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	37 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3	81 s · transaction	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 44.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.7 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	satirexxx.near	9.2 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
10	ericakang.user.….near	25.2 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
11	capuccino88.near	31.4 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
12	iagipero.near	31.5 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
13	heyyyyyyy.user.….near	32.8 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
14	roseyanastasia4.near	33.3 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
15	hurikh4n.near	33.8 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
16	vicious_parasit….near	34.2 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
17	openuser.near	35.1 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
18	c3aedc5ad0e7f10…9b1cd	50.2 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	dev side received 10.00 NEAR from narrowwiki8350.near (the dev), 46 s before its first buy · transaction
19	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	52.2 min · transaction	not sold	-0.0000 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of narrowwiki8350.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-06 16:58 UTC	nearly.trade	qinu.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only