QDOG nearly.trade

qdog-5.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch qdog-5.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'qdog' was already used 57 min earlier by another creator (qdog-4.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch qdog-4.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (green_bot4.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2680 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 50% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-08 09:51:48 UTC · block 219067861 · history: launch only
Transaction	83PR6ULwxNtav…Fy4Pp
Creator	leopard.user.intear.near explorer
Pool	qdog-5.nearlytrade.near\|qtc.omft.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-08 18:58 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	1	20	36	36	36
Buyers spent	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	-0.0000 NEAR	-0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.00x	1.28x	1.91x	1.91x	1.91x
Holders	1	9	18	11	12
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	96.9%	100.0%	100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	0% · 0 of 8 hold	<0.01% · 1 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	3.6% · 1 of 1 hold	10.9% · 11 of 12 hold	2.1% · 9 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	3.6% · 1 wallets	10.9% · 20 wallets	2.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	96.4%	89.1%	97.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100.0% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ironborn.user.i….near	2.3 min · transaction	26.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
2	9a407364cc33c5a…d5d69	5.1 min · transaction	not sold	-0.0000 NEAR	none found
3	5118bc63c007b86…b9e0e	6.9 min · transaction	29.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	none found
4	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	94feda709c301ed…63090	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	7.5 min · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12	crynux.user.int….near	7.8 min · transaction	17.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
13	mesko.near	8.2 min · transaction	not sold	-0.0000 NEAR	none found
14	sotoquispe.near	8.4 min · transaction	10.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
15	gxlhulc.tg	8.7 min · transaction	not sold	-0.0000 NEAR	none found
16	tpwuden.near	8.8 min · transaction	36.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	none found
17	sessssssssss.near	9.0 min · transaction	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
18	hmmmm.user.intear.near	9.2 min · transaction	16.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
19	goodtower8351.near	10.8 min · transaction	not sold	-0.0000 NEAR	none found
20	ethereal_contra….near	12.0 min · transaction	16.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of leopard.user.intear.near

None known.