QTC nearly.trade

qtc-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
  • +5
    The name 'qtc' was already used 6.8 h earlier by another creator (qtc-2.nearlytrade.near).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2677 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. outside buyers' net result -0.00 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 63 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 6324up.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-08 09:47:05 UTC, 34.9 min after the launch: qvV61CLzWSeMm…qtVJr.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 63% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-08 09:12:10 UTC · block 219063809 · history: launch only
Transaction9uxfBxu7uRiWs…yo1Nu
Creator6324up.near explorer
Poolqtc-3.nearlytrade.near|qtc.omft.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 14:05 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-10 14:05 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.55x the peak
Outside buyers in profit6 of 16 · 37.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 6 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch———34.9 min34.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)414161616
Buyers spent0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%100%100%
Insiders' net result+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.17x1.78x1.78x1.78x1.78x
Holders54635
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 4.3% · holds 4.3% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — 2.6% · 1 of 6 hold 2.6% · 1 of 6 hold
Other early buyers 4.8% · 4 of 4 hold 3.5% · 2 of 8 hold 6.1% · 2 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)4.8% · 4 wallets6.1% · 14 wallets8.7% · 16 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)90.9%89.6%91.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 16 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 js1112s.near 45 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 50.5 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
2 fullestate9851.near 2.4 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 6.1 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
3 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 3.6 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
4 tacotuesday.near 4.4 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold +0.0000 NEAR
5 schwanzp.near 5.8 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 8.8 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
6 lowpant8440.near 6.3 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
7 kkkkk2.near 6.8 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold -0.0000 NEAR
8 ebisidiaidi.near 6.9 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 117 s after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
9 iagipero.near 7.3 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 6.4 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
10 579b7294974b54d…30203 7.3 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 100 s after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
11 harddove4861.near 7.5 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
12 kimpet77.near 7.7 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 88 s after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
13 guz004.near 8.5 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
14 e9826429e935604…ec819 9.1 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 79 s after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
15 quickviper8793.near 15.3 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold -0.0000 NEAR
16 suisucks.near 28.6 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 6324up.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-30 13:30 UTC justhoot v1 ghoot-fc3310.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 11:53 UTC nearly.trade illia3.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only