In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
No risk signal fired for this launch.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2687 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +612.69 NEAR · insiders' net result: +5.06 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 83% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-08 17:49:08 UTC · block 219116413 · history: launch only
16out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
38
142 of 375 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
24
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 10:27 UTC
Price now
2.60x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.24x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
142 of 375 · 37.9%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
1.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0.2% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.1% · 1 of 11 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
16
35
51
57
131
Buyers spent
181.52 NEAR
508.59 NEAR
1,045.24 NEAR
1,254.34 NEAR
3,074.36 NEAR
Buyers net result
+29.92 NEAR
+183.23 NEAR
+226.26 NEAR
+181.42 NEAR
+612.69 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
+0.45 NEAR
+0.64 NEAR
+0.27 NEAR
+5.06 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.35x
1.98x
2.70x
2.70x
3.95x
Holders
17
36
43
43
74
Top 10 holders' share
82.9%
53.5%
53.3%
55.5%
42.4%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0.1% · holds
0.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
6.1% · 10 of 11 hold
7.4% · 11 of 11 hold
1.8% · 7 of 11 hold
Other early buyers
6.7% · 6 of 6 hold
15.8% · 19 of 19 hold
11.8% · 14 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
12.8% · 17 wallets
23.3% · 30 wallets
13.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
87.2%
76.7%
86.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
82.9%
53.5%
55.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
83.4% · 1 merged
53.5% · 1 merged
55.5% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.