In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+50
67 of the 103 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 67 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 64%.
Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (3.200% per buy, 3.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Received 8.01 NEAR 1 min before the launch from pantessa.near, whose earlier launch nexar-5.nearlytrade.near (made by nexarterminal.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Outside buyers' net result: -14.38 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-29 08:26:26 UTC · block 217752787 · history: launch only
buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 13:46 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-10 13:46 UTC
Price now
0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.74x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 8 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 2 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
12.1%
12.1%
12.1%
12.1%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
12.3 min
12.3 min
12.3 min
12.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
8
8
8
8
8
Buyers spent
159.42 NEAR
159.42 NEAR
159.42 NEAR
159.42 NEAR
159.42 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.64 NEAR
-14.35 NEAR
-14.38 NEAR
-14.38 NEAR
-14.38 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
2
2
2
2
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
100.0%
112.1%
112.1%
112.1%
112.1%
Insiders' net result
+0.07 NEAR
+0.86 NEAR
+0.86 NEAR
+0.86 NEAR
+0.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.26x
1.26x
1.26x
1.26x
1.26x
Holders
8
2
2
4
5
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
<0.01% · holds
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.5% · 1 of 2 hold
0% · 0 of 2 hold
0% · 0 of 2 hold
Other early buyers
8.2% · 5 of 6 hold
1.7% · 1 of 6 hold
1.7% · 1 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
8.7% · 8 wallets
1.7% · 8 wallets
1.7% · 8 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
91.3%
98.3%
98.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 8 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.