RHEAINU nearly.trade

rheainu.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 80.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 8000).
Evidence: launch rheainu.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1983 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Received tokens from the dev: ablerobe608.near.
Outside buyers' net result: +0.02 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 69% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-02 00:17:17 UTC · block 218128620 · history: launch only
Transaction	BAaa6V9ECXnYJ…4ka1n
Creator	hugesalt7946.near explorer
Pool	rheainu.nearlytrade.near\|token.rhealab.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 80.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-24 23:24 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-24 23:24 UTC
Price now	1.15x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.27x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	21 of 85 · 24.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	5	16	17	17	74
Buyers spent	0.0096 NEAR	0.03 NEAR	0.03 NEAR	0.03 NEAR	0.10 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.0011 NEAR	+0.02 NEAR	+0.02 NEAR	+0.01 NEAR	+0.02 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.0006 NEAR	+0.0026 NEAR	+0.0026 NEAR	+0.0024 NEAR	+0.0036 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.40x	2.49x	2.54x	2.54x	4.23x
Holders	6	17	18	18	49
Top 10 holders' share	100%	82.5%	80.9%	86.3%	69.3%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.2% · holds	3.2% · holds	3.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	—	—
Other early buyers	13.6% · 5 of 5 hold	33.5% · 16 of 16 hold	31.9% · 15 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	13.6% · 5 wallets	33.5% · 16 wallets	31.9% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	83.2%	63.2%	64.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	82.5%	86.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	82.5% · 0 merged	86.3% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	48 s · transaction	—	11.9 min after buying · transaction	—	none found
2	humankoala8143.near	2.8 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
3	quietnut2696.near	3.5 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
4	solidcheese927.near	4.2 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
5	nearquiche2731.near	4.5 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
6	narrowhare8518.near	5.3 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
7	leftgoat6193.near	5.7 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
8	lambadaa.near	6.3 min · transaction	—	43.9 min after buying · transaction	—	none found
9	longvest6391.near	6.4 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
10	lateurial5761.near	7.0 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
11	likelynook3858.near	8.1 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
12	weakestate9406.near	8.7 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
13	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	8.8 min · transaction	—	33.4 min after buying · transaction	—	none found
14	bradmir3345.near	9.2 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found
15	harrydev.near	10.0 min · transaction	—	20.7 min after buying · transaction	—	none found
16	iagipero.near	10.9 min · transaction	—	38.6 min after buying · transaction	—	none found
17	supremeanal.near	17.3 min · transaction	—	not sold	—	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of hugesalt7946.near

None known.