RHEKT nearly.trade

rhekt.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch rhekt.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1625 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -6.16 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.20 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 76% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 04:44:19 UTC · block 218013931 · history: launch only
TransactionGM8y9KcKhn3J5…ZE6XL
Creator0x5164fd03043da38dc5f22183b88cc5a57530f6fe explorer
Poolrhekt.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 23:54 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 23:54 UTC
Price now1.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.75x the peak
Outside buyers in profit6 of 18 · 33.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account1.9% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 15 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1717171718
Buyers spent164.36 NEAR164.36 NEAR164.36 NEAR164.36 NEAR169.28 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.07 NEAR-1.27 NEAR-1.80 NEAR-2.29 NEAR-6.16 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+2.80 NEAR+2.40 NEAR+2.24 NEAR+2.07 NEAR+0.20 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.37x1.37x1.37x1.37x1.37x
Holders1291083
Top 10 holders' share98.7%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.9% · holds 1.9% · holds 1.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 6.0% · 10 of 15 hold 5.7% · 8 of 15 hold 5.1% · 5 of 15 hold
Other early buyers 0.2% · 1 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)6.2% · 17 wallets5.7% · 17 wallets5.1% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)91.9%92.4%93.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)98.7%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 19 s · transaction 1.01 NEAR 32.6 min after buying · transaction +0.12 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 45 of those launches
pair bought within 1.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
2 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a 20 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 28.7 min after buying · transaction +0.37 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 56 of those launches
pair bought within 0.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 59 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.4 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.9 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 20 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR not sold +0.21 NEAR
pair bought within 5.9 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 59 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
4 db9077fc36538dd…6c79b 23 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +0.93 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 2.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.5 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.9 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 24 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +0.17 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 4.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.6 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6 d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b 26 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR not sold -0.35 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches
pair bought within 5.9 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.5 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.4 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
7 neverekt.near 35 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 12.7 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches
pair bought within 14.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.3 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.4 s of alola.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 c28ebb8af189396…a8c13 38 s · transaction 19.61 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.64 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 38 s · transaction 19.61 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction -1.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 10.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of alola.near · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 38 s · transaction 19.61 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.41 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 10.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 48 s · transaction 11.76 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 10.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.4 s of alola.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 48 s · transaction 11.76 NEAR 2.7 min after buying · transaction +0.27 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
13 alola.near 54 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.13 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 15.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
14 b8185e452876272…dff87 59 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.15 NEAR
pair bought within 5.1 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.4 s of neverekt.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.8 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15 579b7294974b54d…30203 94 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction -0.08 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 39.8 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16 tookur.near 114 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -1.60 NEAR none found
17 freshuser3857.near 3.6 min · transaction 3.00 NEAR 114 s after buying · transaction -0.39 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 0x5164fd03043da38dc5f…0f6fe

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-01 05:15 UTC nearly.trade linear-3.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only