SAI nearly.trade

sai.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch sai.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (thinquiche3054.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 29 % (745 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 5.52 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: saifun.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-21 22:59:21 UTC, 2.1 min after the launch: 4p7fWMZTUkNoW…SLXMC.
Outside buyers' net result: -5.52 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.08 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-21 22:57:14 UTC · block 221009152 · history: launch only
Transaction	4PKayFFXXyuAx…2AhQb
Creator	saifun.near explorer
Pool	sai.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	21.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-22 05:16 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	2.1 min	2.1 min	2.1 min	2.1 min	2.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	13	13	13	13
Buyers spent	76.33 NEAR	76.33 NEAR	76.33 NEAR	76.33 NEAR	76.33 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.31 NEAR	-4.64 NEAR	-4.83 NEAR	-5.52 NEAR	-5.76 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+2.08 NEAR	+2.08 NEAR	+2.08 NEAR	+2.08 NEAR	+2.08 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x
Holders	6	5	4	4	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.8% · 6 of 13 hold	2.6% · 5 of 13 hold	0.7% · 3 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.8% · 13 wallets	2.6% · 13 wallets	0.7% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.2%	97.4%	99.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ro52.near	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	19.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	12.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
3	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	+0.0079 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.0029 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
5	bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 110 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 85 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
6	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
7	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	18.91 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.0042 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	14 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.55 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches pair bought within 11.1 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	23 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 20.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	c3f8bfd9b2668a2…95e1a	82 s · transaction	9.96 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.64 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b7fea875a454f51…24509 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	b7fea875a454f51…24509	82 s · transaction	9.96 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.97 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c3f8bfd9b2668a2…95e1a · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.3 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	beenhere.near	97 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.26 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of decep.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	decep.near	98 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	48.2 min after buying · transaction	-3.12 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 31 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of beenhere.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of saifun.near

None known.