In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (204 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +521.84 NEAR · insiders' net result: +15.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 41% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 05:01:23 UTC · block 217586621 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 15:36 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-10 15:36 UTC
Price now
1.37x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.16x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
208 of 574 · 36.2%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
1.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.5% · 1 of 10 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
11
18
28
126
406
Buyers spent
200.40 NEAR
365.76 NEAR
585.44 NEAR
2,283.83 NEAR
7,207.08 NEAR
Buyers net result
+33.21 NEAR
+71.10 NEAR
+229.92 NEAR
+726.76 NEAR
+521.84 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+2.40 NEAR
+3.71 NEAR
+7.10 NEAR
+15.38 NEAR
+15.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.36x
1.57x
2.12x
5.08x
8.75x
Holders
13
21
31
112
158
Top 10 holders' share
97.8%
88.9%
71.8%
52.8%
54.9%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.6% · holds
0.6% · holds
0.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
12.8% · 8 of 8 hold
10.9% · 7 of 8 hold
3.3% · 4 of 10 hold
Other early buyers
3.0% · 3 of 3 hold
11.4% · 10 of 10 hold
9.1% · 13 of 20 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
15.8% · 11 wallets
22.4% · 18 wallets
12.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
83.7%
77.1%
87.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
97.8%
88.9%
52.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
97.8% · 0 merged
88.9% · 0 merged
52.8% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.