SHERIFCHENKO nearly.trade

sherifchenko.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (app.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2742 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +1238.21 NEAR · insiders' net result: +353.16 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 36% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-09 14:09:53 UTC · block 219240683 · history: launch only
Transaction	EiJ3mw6XbiuWa…V9hQZ
Creator	zavodil.near explorer
Pool	sherifchenko.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	42.51 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 18:49 UTC

11 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit	30	121 of 398 outside buyers
Buy pressure	0	buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak	14	the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity	0	0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-12 23:23 UTC
Price now	2.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.14x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	121 of 398 · 30.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	8.6% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0.2% · 9 of 16 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.2% · 2 of 15 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	19	119	200	239	306
Buyers spent	543.57 NEAR	2,673.48 NEAR	5,938.04 NEAR	8,656.38 NEAR	13,759.60 NEAR
Buyers net result	+318.66 NEAR	+3,308.45 NEAR	+6,309.20 NEAR	+4,509.64 NEAR	+1,238.21 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+85.94 NEAR	+611.56 NEAR	+1,034.27 NEAR	+812.02 NEAR	+353.16 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.46x	8.62x	13.48x	14.83x	14.83x
Holders	20	103	165	179	145
Top 10 holders' share	87.1%	59.4%	49.3%	47.3%	54.5%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	8.3% · holds	8.3% · holds	8.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	16.2% · 11 of 11 hold	12.1% · 12 of 15 hold	6.3% · 8 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	14.5% · 8 of 8 hold	16.2% · 14 of 15 hold	11.2% · 11 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	30.7% · 19 wallets	28.2% · 30 wallets	17.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	61.0%	63.5%	74.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	87.1%	59.4%	47.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	90.9% · 2 merged	59.5% · 2 merged	47.3% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	11 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	43.1 min after buying · transaction	+47.32 NEAR	pair bought within 11.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.9 s of hooting.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	4.1 min after buying · transaction	+12.60 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 11.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of hooting.near · 42 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3	hooting.near	22 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	4.1 min after buying · transaction	+5.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 42 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.9 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	56c9a6ef438223b….near	26 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+39.15 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 21 of those launches pair bought within 23.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of hooting.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	50 s · transaction	70.17 NEAR	10.0 min after buying · transaction	+398.65 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 28.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.9 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	js1112s.near	55 s · transaction	27.00 NEAR	40.9 min after buying · transaction	+151.28 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 33.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.0 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	kuill.near	86 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	9.7 min after buying · transaction	+63.31 NEAR	pair bought within 33.9 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	kakoilogin.tg	109 s · transaction	94.95 NEAR	not sold	+602.81 NEAR	none found
9	proud-walrus-52….near	109 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	not sold	+332.66 NEAR	pair bought within 10.1 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	alola.near	119 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.3 min after buying · transaction	+3.28 NEAR	pair bought within 26.9 s of hmmmm.user.intear.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of shikigima.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.1 s of proud-walrus-52….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11	a5e4bde4763ddfa…fe192	2.3 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	16.7 min after buying · transaction	+258.78 NEAR	none found
12	hmmmm.user.intear.near	2.4 min · transaction	63.50 NEAR	17.6 min after buying · transaction	+191.85 NEAR	pair bought within 26.9 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.1 s of shikigima.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	juicepilado.use….near	2.7 min · transaction	69.05 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+126.83 NEAR	none found
14	shikigima.near	2.8 min · transaction	190.00 NEAR	9.4 min after buying · transaction	+46.82 NEAR	pair bought within 49.1 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.1 s of hmmmm.user.intear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	stellar-storm-2….near	3.9 min · transaction	49.25 NEAR	13.5 min after buying · transaction	+169.07 NEAR	none found
16	batwomanear.near	4.4 min · transaction	90.00 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	+91.34 NEAR	none found
17	2695aba6ddf63b2….near	4.6 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	+30.03 NEAR	none found
18	indix.near	4.8 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	9.6 min after buying · transaction	+23.51 NEAR	none found
19	baddove5186.near	4.8 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	18.2 min after buying · transaction	+107.31 NEAR	none found
20	tpwuden.near	5.0 min · transaction	18.00 NEAR	not sold	+52.74 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of zavodil.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-18 17:35 UTC	justhoot v1	hooters-f5dd7a.launchpad.justhoot.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only