SHEV nearly.trade

shev.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch shev.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (baldorijo.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1130 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 5.70 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: purevinegar2824.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 16:14:04 UTC, 7.7 min after the launch: AfRfLozFwRdsG…1XypS.
Outside buyers' net result: -5.70 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.12 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 16:06:25 UTC · block 217798694 · history: launch only
Transaction	32w2j8LheDg4T…guvMD
Creator	purevinegar2824.near explorer
Pool	shev.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	27.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-14 06:38 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-14 06:38 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.78x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	2 of 18 · 11.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	7.7 min	7.7 min	7.7 min	7.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	16	17	17	17
Buyers spent	136.67 NEAR	136.67 NEAR	136.68 NEAR	136.68 NEAR	136.68 NEAR
Buyers net result	+9.78 NEAR	-5.69 NEAR	-5.70 NEAR	-5.70 NEAR	-5.70 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+6.53 NEAR	-0.12 NEAR	-0.12 NEAR	-0.12 NEAR	-0.12 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x
Holders	16	4	4	4	4
Top 10 holders' share	97.7%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.5% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.8% · 9 of 11 hold	0.0% · 1 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	3.0% · 5 of 5 hold	0% · 0 of 5 hold	0% · 0 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	9.9% · 16 wallets	0.0% · 16 wallets	0% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	87.6%	100.0%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.7%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100.0% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	26 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	18.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 21.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.5 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2	filippoleynik.near	47 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	-1.22 NEAR	none found
3	e8a162641a55288…58210	48 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.57 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 6.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.8 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	54 s · transaction	19.91 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	+1.41 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 5.7 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	54 s · transaction	19.91 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.75 NEAR	pair bought within 5.7 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	54 s · transaction	19.91 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 5.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.5 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	59 s · transaction	7.96 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 4.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	59 s · transaction	7.96 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 5.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.7 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.7 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	sessssssssss.near	97 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	77 s after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 48.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.0 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c	115 s · transaction	0.10 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 5.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	2.0 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 24.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of 313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.0 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	920b3a669f9f318…ce387	2.4 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.71 NEAR	pair bought within 45.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	98ddb6d4c02b88b…78bda	2.5 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	none found
14	5a915b97b9b57a2…3395c	2.7 min · transaction	0.10 NEAR	6.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	none found
15	974f647f7d706ac…04a90	2.9 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.34 NEAR	none found
16	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	4.0 min · transaction	19.84 NEAR	102 s after buying · transaction	-3.42 NEAR	none found
17	6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54	24.3 min · transaction	0.01 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0004 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of purevinegar2824.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-25 15:55 UTC	nearly.trade	nrr.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-30 13:31 UTC	justhoot v1	tooh-c3334c.launchpad.justhoot.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-01 21:35 UTC	nearly.trade	bot-2.nearlytrade.near	35 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-02 10:51 UTC	nearly.trade	delhirhea.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-08 10:17 UTC	nearly.trade	qshoes.nearlytrade.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-22 08:37 UTC	justhoot v2	test.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	15 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only