SHIBA nearly.trade

shiba.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1658 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 72 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 110.2% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: shiba456.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 11:11:06 UTC, 92.9 min after the launch: GNhDZRynistxV…qtfos.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -10.58 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.05 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 72% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 09:38:15 UTC · block 218043601 · history: launch only
TransactionBRHasujG1eRNE…icAZW
Creatorshiba456.near explorer
Poolshiba.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy5.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-08 16:37 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-08 16:37 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.71x the peak
Outside buyers in profit2 of 13 · 15.4%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 10 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%110.2%
Dev's first sell after launch————92.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1213131313
Buyers spent181.04 NEAR182.03 NEAR182.03 NEAR182.03 NEAR182.03 NEAR
Buyers net result+27.23 NEAR-2.02 NEAR-2.28 NEAR-2.28 NEAR-10.58 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%110.2%
Insiders' net result+1.79 NEAR+0.66 NEAR+0.64 NEAR+0.64 NEAR+1.05 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.35x1.35x1.35x1.35x1.35x
Holders137683
Top 10 holders' share98.0%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.5% · holds 0.5% · holds 0.5% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 13.1% · 10 of 10 hold 6.9% · 5 of 10 hold 6.9% · 5 of 10 hold
Other early buyers 1.4% · 2 of 2 hold 0.1% · 1 of 3 hold 0% · 0 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)14.5% · 12 wallets7.0% · 13 wallets6.9% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)85.0%92.6%92.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)98.0%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 db9077fc36538dd…6c79b 104 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +1.61 NEAR
2 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a 105 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +0.38 NEAR
3 d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b 105 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR not sold +1.13 NEAR
4 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 105 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR not sold +0.11 NEAR
5 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 2.1 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +0.45 NEAR
6 neverekt.near 2.6 min · transaction 2.50 NEAR 9.6 min after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR
7 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 2.9 min · transaction 39.09 NEAR 6.1 min after buying · transaction -1.47 NEAR
8 badriansyahirwa….near 3.2 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR 8.6 min after buying · transaction -0.06 NEAR
9 bodro94.near 3.3 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 8.3 min after buying · transaction -1.20 NEAR
10 lambadaa.near 3.5 min · transaction 35.00 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction -1.41 NEAR
11 820065d24c77bce…8bb4c 3.7 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction -1.40 NEAR
12 b8185e452876272…dff87 3.9 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.19 NEAR
13 5ed9f00d7966ab9…c4a6e 11.2 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of shiba456.near

None known.