SHINKA nearly.trade

shinka.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+50
24 of the 24 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 24 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 94%.
Evidence: launch owl.v2-launchpad.….near, launch idiot.v2-launchpa….near, launch nearszn.v2-launch….near, launch msg-2.nearlytrade.near, launch owl-3.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 0.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
Evidence: launch shinka.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 28.76 NEAR 3 min before the launch from nearpowder.near, whose earlier launch owl.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near (made by near-szn.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 2yxv66r7rUxz5wQmv…BHPn7, launch owl.v2-launchpad.….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 34 % (719 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 0.84 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: shinkaai.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 09:14:22 UTC, 3.7 min after the launch: 76svMeQc9xjc6…ALYGg.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.84 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.47 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-23 09:10:41 UTC · block 221218404 · history: launch only
Transaction	3YjzwGFbqypqf…pTZs7
Creator	shinkaai.near explorer
Pool	shinka.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-23 15:11 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-23 15:11 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.91x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	4 of 10 · 40%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 10 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	3.7 min	3.7 min	3.7 min	3.7 min	3.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	10	10	10	10	10
Buyers spent	19.50 NEAR	19.50 NEAR	19.50 NEAR	19.50 NEAR	19.50 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.77 NEAR	-0.79 NEAR	-0.79 NEAR	-0.84 NEAR	-1.05 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	-0.47 NEAR	-0.47 NEAR	-0.47 NEAR	-0.47 NEAR	-0.47 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.08x	1.08x	1.08x	1.08x	1.08x
Holders	4	4	4	2	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.2% · 4 of 10 hold	1.2% · 4 of 10 hold	1.0% · 2 of 10 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	1.2% · 10 wallets	1.2% · 10 wallets	1.0% · 10 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	98.8%	98.8%	99.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 10 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	onlyrekt.near	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
2	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 146 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
3	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 146 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4	pussy.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	sickvilla1308.near	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	52.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 53 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
7	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
8	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	13 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.39 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches pair bought within 9.6 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 43 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	13 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 9.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of alola.near · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	22 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 19.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 94 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of shinkaai.near

None known.