SHIT nearly.trade

shit-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch shit-3.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'shit' was already used 6.1 h earlier by another creator (shit-2.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch shit-2.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2159 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. no outside buyers; no outside buyers.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: fuzzypeach.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 23:19:50 UTC, 348.2 min after the launch: 7uLkR2QK2qvoe…eWgBQ.
Outside buyers' net result: +0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 98% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-02 17:31:37 UTC · block 218233729 · history: launch only
Transaction	4ZU3213gBBbwj…32yPK
Creator	fuzzypeach.near explorer
Pool	diarhea.nearlytrade.near\|shit-3.nearlytrade.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 23:19 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	348.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	0	0	0	0	0
Buyers spent	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Buyers net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Insiders' net result	-0.0001 NEAR	-0.0001 NEAR	-0.0001 NEAR	-0.0001 NEAR	-0.0002 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	—	—	—	—	—
Holders	1	1	1	1	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	—	—
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0% · 0 wallets	0% · 0 wallets	0% · 0 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Other launches of fuzzypeach.near

None known.