SHORE nearly.trade

shore.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch shore.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1151 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 9b5c63c95f791015f0063…4c4c5 (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -5.41 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.54 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 89% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 16:41:13 UTC · block 217802206 · history: launch only
Transaction2H4NkMdDgGMJM…pLT1a
Creator9b5c63c95f791015f0063ae299393d9cd2216e9e4ace066b6e01ffc430a4c4c5 explorer
Poolshore.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 17:12 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—7.4 min7.4 min7.4 min7.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1515151515
Buyers spent95.92 NEAR95.92 NEAR95.92 NEAR95.92 NEAR95.92 NEAR
Buyers net result-5.38 NEAR-5.39 NEAR-5.39 NEAR-5.41 NEAR-5.41 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR+0.54 NEAR+0.54 NEAR+0.54 NEAR+0.54 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.11x1.11x1.11x1.11x1.11x
Holders22233
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.1% · 1 of 15 hold 0.1% · 1 of 15 hold 0% · 0 of 15 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.1% · 15 wallets0.1% · 15 wallets0% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.9%99.9%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 27 s · transaction 1.98 NEAR 29 s after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 21.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
2 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 42 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction -0.24 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 42 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction -0.47 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 42 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction -0.36 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 42 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction -0.37 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 42 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 67 s after buying · transaction -0.25 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7 3347dd8076331ad…52407 49 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 17 s after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 35.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.6 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
8 1122233413123.near 67 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 65 s after buying · transaction -1.77 NEAR
pair bought within 35.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9 313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c 75 s · transaction 0.10 NEAR 110 s after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 8.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 alola.near 75 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.13 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 8.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
11 orcabl.near 79 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR 38 s after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
pair bought within 3.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.3 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12 e8a162641a55288…58210 84 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR 45 s after buying · transaction -0.38 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 8.9 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
13 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 90 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 27 s after buying · transaction -0.27 NEAR
pair bought within 12.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.9 s of barrey.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.9 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
14 sessssssssss.near 102 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 16 s after buying · transaction -0.37 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 26.9 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15 barrey.near 114 s · transaction 4.96 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.67 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 38.2 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 9b5c63c95f791015f0063…4c4c5

None known.