The largest funder's (7805f1b3565431131c4dc6b4246c7917db291737ed71df796a9161a2fe12d0c7) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (156 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.outside buyers' net result +9.35 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 43 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 2643.4% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 00:36:01 UTC, 10.1 min after the launch: GXHUVvaAZJbWV…BuTWS.
Outside buyers' net result: -29.36 NEAR · insiders' net result: +6.48 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 43% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 00:25:56 UTC · block 217558591 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-30 20:49 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-09-30 20:49 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.31x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
24 of 81 · 29.6%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 4 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
100%
100%
100%
2643.4%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
10.1 min
10.1 min
10.1 min
10.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
9
22
22
23
63
Buyers spent
142.11 NEAR
315.46 NEAR
315.46 NEAR
315.56 NEAR
1,723.77 NEAR
Buyers net result
+15.26 NEAR
+11.26 NEAR
+9.44 NEAR
+9.35 NEAR
-29.36 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
100%
100%
100%
2643.4%
Insiders' net result
+0.03 NEAR
+0.06 NEAR
+0.06 NEAR
+0.06 NEAR
+6.48 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.25x
1.66x
1.66x
1.66x
3.13x
Holders
11
13
12
15
16
Top 10 holders' share
100.0%
99.0%
99.5%
98.7%
99.5%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
<0.01% · holds
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0.0% · 1 of 1 hold
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
3.4% · 3 of 3 hold
0% · 0 of 4 hold
0% · 0 of 4 hold
Other early buyers
8.6% · 5 of 5 hold
12.1% · 11 of 17 hold
12.1% · 10 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
12.0% · 9 wallets
12.2% · 22 wallets
12.1% · 23 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
88%
87.8%
87.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100.0%
99.0%
98.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100.0% · 0 merged
99.0% · 0 merged
98.7% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.