SLUG nearly.trade

slug-8.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 55 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +30
    1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator); smoothed rug share 47%.
    Evidence: launch nearkat-11.nearly….near
  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 40.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 4000).
    Evidence: launch slug-8.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'slug' was already used 7.0 h earlier by another creator (slug-7.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch slug-7.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (352 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 82 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: lordsagaog.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 17:47:03 UTC, 208.5 min after the launch: 7ddph7C9A6PuG…PC5GL.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -5.20 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.74 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 82% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 14:18:33 UTC · block 217643112 · history: launch only
TransactionGuGwMV3BggtpS…9snGQ
Creatorlordsagaog.near explorer
Poolslug-8.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy6.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 40.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-12 13:29 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-12 13:29 UTC
Price now0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.80x the peak
Outside buyers in profit3 of 9 · 33.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%100%
Dev's first sell after launch————208.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)00289
Buyers spent0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR41.00 NEAR102.74 NEAR113.74 NEAR
Buyers net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+0.41 NEAR+8.96 NEAR-5.20 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%100%
Insiders' net result-0.03 NEAR-0.03 NEAR+0.35 NEAR+1.25 NEAR+0.74 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer——1.04x1.18x1.18x
Holders224105
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.6% · holds 0.6% · holds 0.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers — — 8.9% · 8 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0% · 0 wallets0% · 0 wallets8.9% · 8 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.4%99.4%90.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 8 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 ovitalikbuterin….near 18.9 min · transaction 21.00 NEAR not sold +3.60 NEAR none found
2 nasanear.near 19.8 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +2.53 NEAR none found
3 2b39ba8491895bf…e83ff 40.5 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR not sold +0.41 NEAR none found
4 gusri.near 48.9 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR not sold +1.55 NEAR none found
5 capuccino88.near 50.2 min · transaction 29.85 NEAR not sold +0.91 NEAR none found
6 ruggerino.near 51.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.0023 NEAR none found
7 roseyanastasia4.near 51.7 min · transaction 6.00 NEAR not sold -0.02 NEAR none found
8 a98e726c755db35…a3255 53.9 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.0100 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of lordsagaog.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-28 12:42 UTC nearly.trade nearkat-11.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro rug history: launch only