SOCIAL nearly.trade

social-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 60 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 1 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 47%.
Evidence: launch humaze.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch social-2.nearlytr….near
+10
Received 16.17 NEAR 10 min before the launch from wunon.near, whose earlier launch humaze.nearlytrade.near (made by humaze.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 59x2vckKQbPvv9vU6…8UMEk, launch humaze.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (821 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 13.50 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearsocialfun.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-18 14:33:16 UTC, 20.7 min after the launch: 25vxrSfinVmao…VFZZS.
Outside buyers' net result: -13.50 NEAR · insiders' net result: +8.74 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-18 14:12:36 UTC · block 220522761 · history: launch only
Transaction	3Xskjtxemuwqj…Lj2HQ
Creator	nearsocialfun.near explorer
Pool	social-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	16.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-20 04:02 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-20 04:02 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.43x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	18 of 39 · 46.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 19 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	90.7%	100%	116.2%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	20.7 min	20.7 min	20.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	13	37	37	38
Buyers spent	86.40 NEAR	117.78 NEAR	766.38 NEAR	808.07 NEAR	858.07 NEAR
Buyers net result	+1.95 NEAR	+4.65 NEAR	+177.91 NEAR	-13.50 NEAR	-28.84 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	90.7%	100%	116.2%
Insiders' net result	+1.91 NEAR	+2.67 NEAR	+9.26 NEAR	+8.74 NEAR	+11.98 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.20x	1.20x	2.30x	2.30x	2.30x
Holders	10	10	26	9	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	79.2%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.5% · holds	1.5% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.3% · 9 of 11 hold	5.1% · 7 of 11 hold	3.2% · 5 of 19 hold
Other early buyers	—	2.5% · 2 of 2 hold	4.1% · 4 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	5.3% · 11 wallets	7.6% · 13 wallets	7.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	93.2%	90.8%	92.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	12.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	20.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.56 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	ro52.near	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 2.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	6 s · transaction	21.00 NEAR	27.7 min after buying · transaction	+12.67 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 2.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.66 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 5.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	56c9a6ef438223b….near	21 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	117 s after buying · transaction	+0.35 NEAR	pair bought within 17.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	24 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	not sold	+0.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 20.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	axxe.near	29 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.12 NEAR	pair bought within 25.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.9 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	34 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	32.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 30.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	barrey.near	75 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	19.8 min after buying · transaction	+2.94 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 41.6 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.3 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	narrownook4299.near	7.8 min · transaction	27.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.26 NEAR	none found
13	satirexxx.near	14.6 min · transaction	27.22 NEAR	16.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.03 NEAR	none found
14	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	15.1 min · transaction	2.97 NEAR	3.7 min after buying · transaction	+2.03 NEAR	none found
15	ccccaaa.near	16.7 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.22 NEAR	none found
16	sneering_spire9….near	17.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	none found
17	darknes.near	17.2 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	103 s after buying · transaction	+5.79 NEAR	pair bought within 37.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	gracychen11.near	17.5 min · transaction	69.30 NEAR	113 s after buying · transaction	+9.96 NEAR	none found
19	colddress6080.near	17.6 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	17.8 min after buying · transaction	+1.34 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 7.0 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.8 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.0 s of 51206134269a0d4….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	51206134269a0d4….near	17.7 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	72 s after buying · transaction	+0.91 NEAR	pair bought within 3.0 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.0 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.1 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearsocialfun.near

None known.