SOCIAL nearly.trade

social.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch social.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 20 % (1444 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 33 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 221.2% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: socdvhub.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 14:13:44 UTC, 1390.1 min after the launch: Bww3WHHMYBsbP…eW9Nj.
Outside buyers' net result: -59.69 NEAR · insiders' net result: +6.76 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 33% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-30 15:03:38 UTC · block 217931167 · history: launch only
Transaction	37f1TUm9C2TFg…w6x98
Creator	socdvhub.near explorer
Pool	social.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	4.40 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-12 09:22 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-12 09:22 UTC
Price now	1.01x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.29x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	27 of 74 · 36.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 17 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	0%	0%	0%	221.2%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	1195.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	0	19	53	72	74
Buyers spent	0.00 NEAR	357.16 NEAR	1,506.19 NEAR	2,041.28 NEAR	2,096.91 NEAR
Buyers net result	0.00 NEAR	+66.07 NEAR	+360.73 NEAR	-17.09 NEAR	-59.69 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	0%	0%	0%	221.2%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	+2.63 NEAR	+7.37 NEAR	+2.62 NEAR	+6.76 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	—	1.62x	3.41x	3.53x	3.53x
Holders	1	16	36	22	11
Top 10 holders' share	100%	96.3%	78.1%	95.8%	100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0.4% · holds	0.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	9.3% · 8 of 13 hold	0.1% · 1 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	—	13.2% · 6 of 6 hold	13.5% · 6 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0% · 0 wallets	22.5% · 19 wallets	13.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	100%	77.0%	86.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	96.3%	95.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	98.0% · 1 merged	95.8% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	5.7 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	51.1 min after buying · transaction	+4.57 NEAR	pair bought within 13.1 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.1 s of kl1mmm.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2	kl1mmm.near	5.7 min · transaction	0.10 NEAR	41.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.15 NEAR	pair bought within 2.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	5.9 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	14.3 min after buying · transaction	+7.77 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 13.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.2 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of syndi95.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	syndi95.near	5.9 min · transaction	24.80 NEAR	14.8 min after buying · transaction	+40.51 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	6.2 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	27.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.87 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 21.2 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.6 s of syndi95.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	c28ebb8af189396…a8c13	7.6 min · transaction	16.20 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.16 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	7.6 min · transaction	16.20 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0059 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8	33319fac01abb0a…182c0	7.6 min · transaction	16.20 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	7.6 min · transaction	16.20 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	7.6 min · transaction	16.20 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
11	supremegay.near	7.8 min · transaction	94.67 NEAR	12.4 min after buying · transaction	+74.76 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 8.1 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.1 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.1 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	b4c92b95810ba06…f073b	8.8 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	12.7 min after buying · transaction	+5.67 NEAR	none found
13	579b7294974b54d…30203	9.7 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	31.0 min after buying · transaction	+9.27 NEAR	pair bought within 4.0 s of damiano1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	damiano1.near	9.8 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	33.4 min after buying · transaction	+4.69 NEAR	pair bought within 4.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	57b20eecbda3461…ac7a1	10.6 min · transaction	19.00 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	+5.77 NEAR	none found
16	luckyfrog8326.near	10.7 min · transaction	95.00 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	+37.82 NEAR	none found
17	7july.near	11.1 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	12.0 min after buying · transaction	+1.26 NEAR	none found
18	littlefrog9664.near	12.6 min · transaction	116.52 NEAR	43.6 min after buying · transaction	+25.53 NEAR	none found
19	meteorrrr.near	13.6 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	8.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.83 NEAR	none found
20	2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c	15.9 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	24.9 min after buying · transaction	+22.79 NEAR	pair bought within 39.2 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of socdvhub.near

None known.