The creator's history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 33 % (263 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.outside buyers' net result -0.00 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 59 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-10 21:48:47 UTC, 21.2 min after the launch: 5JmVRShDsoGb9…mjoF1.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 59% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-11T21:27 UTC with config v2r-fit-2.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 15:49 UTC
27out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
50
3 of 6 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
59
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 16:07 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.59x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
3 of 6 · 50%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
21.2 min
21.2 min
21.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
5
5
5
5
5
Buyers spent
0.0000 NEAR
0.0000 NEAR
0.0000 NEAR
0.0000 NEAR
0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result
+0.0000 NEAR
+0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
Insiders' net result
-0.0000 NEAR
+0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.35x
1.59x
1.67x
1.67x
1.67x
Holders
6
3
0
0
0
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
—
—
—
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
1.4% · holds
2.0% · holds
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
13.1% · 5 of 5 hold
18.6% · 2 of 5 hold
0% · 0 of 5 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
—
All early buyers (the six rows above)
13.1% · 5 wallets
18.6% · 5 wallets
0% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
85.5%
79.4%
100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
—
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.