STOCKS nearly.trade

stocks-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch stocks-3.nearlytr….near
+5
The name 'stocks' was already used 3.9 h earlier by another creator (stocks-2.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch stocks-2.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (153 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 21 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 210.1% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: 17599c98e87207f0c100c…8128c (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 12:04:59 UTC, 895.1 min after the launch: Fof3G4tLUW6nn…eLZPo.
Outside buyers' net result: -2.71 NEAR · insiders' net result: +25.25 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 21% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-27 21:09:53 UTC · block 217538789 · history: launch only
Transaction	BQHREQYagrYGM…sCXB9
Creator	17599c98e87207f0c100c952073f9bf3b8b28579358190325067fe42f748128c explorer
Pool	stocks-3.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-03 11:53 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-03 11:53 UTC
Price now	1.04x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.12x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	71 of 217 · 32.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 4 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	210.1%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	895.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	2	20	22	22	217
Buyers spent	30.67 NEAR	477.95 NEAR	530.26 NEAR	530.26 NEAR	4,140.41 NEAR
Buyers net result	-1.16 NEAR	+183.81 NEAR	+9.95 NEAR	-1.21 NEAR	-2.71 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	210.1%
Insiders' net result	-0.0071 NEAR	+1.10 NEAR	+0.34 NEAR	+0.25 NEAR	+25.25 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.00x	1.99x	2.05x	2.05x	8.75x
Holders	3	21	14	12	96
Top 10 holders' share	100%	92.8%	98.4%	99.7%	63.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	14.9% · 4 of 4 hold	4.6% · 1 of 4 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	15.0% · 15 of 16 hold	4.9% · 9 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.1% · 2 wallets	29.9% · 20 wallets	9.5% · 22 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.8%	70%	90.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	92.8%	99.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	92.8% · 0 merged	99.7% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	0xpoww.near	60 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.16 NEAR	none found
2	2e94d49b163198c…e92d5	3.9 min · transaction	8.92 NEAR	not sold	-1.64 NEAR	none found
3	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	7.4 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.70 NEAR	pair bought within 28.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	7.9 min · transaction	53.65 NEAR	8.3 min after buying · transaction	+19.43 NEAR	pair bought within 28.9 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.1 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.7 s of dxrkclxd-hot.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	1abb937e7aebae7…3416e	8.7 min · transaction	43.00 NEAR	15.4 min after buying · transaction	+5.45 NEAR	pair bought within 47.1 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	dxrkclxd-hot.tg	8.9 min · transaction	45.00 NEAR	14.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.91 NEAR	pair bought within 59.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	klosd.near	10.2 min · transaction	32.00 NEAR	12.0 min after buying · transaction	+7.76 NEAR	none found
8	db9077fc36538dd…6c79b	11.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	not sold	-4.30 NEAR	none found
9	d45388b6b42db69…73888	11.2 min · transaction	9.95 NEAR	not sold	-1.76 NEAR	none found
10	c7a4f3581bf8691…9778e	11.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.87 NEAR	none found
11	cryptopoorency.near	11.6 min · transaction	4.50 NEAR	16.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.66 NEAR	none found
12	d067893d60d7017…c2847	11.9 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	-3.97 NEAR	none found
13	llllord.near	12.5 min · transaction	100.00 NEAR	3.9 min after buying · transaction	+6.90 NEAR	none found
14	1b7eac23d7e349b…05be3	12.7 min · transaction	39.80 NEAR	38.2 min after buying · transaction	-14.58 NEAR	none found
15	0816c98c3bb50fe…ac721	13.0 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.14 NEAR	none found
16	zambona.near	13.1 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-2.29 NEAR	none found
17	torama.near	13.3 min · transaction	8.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.04 NEAR	none found
18	cc509f3e710df2b…a3009	13.5 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	none found
19	9bce340bdc623a5…26946	13.5 min · transaction	0.64 NEAR	not sold	-0.25 NEAR	none found
20	ra48c299edd318e….near	14.0 min · transaction	6.93 NEAR	9.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.81 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 17599c98e87207f0c100c…8128c

None known.