116 of the 319 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 116 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 36%.
Received 1.00 NEAR 24 min before the launch from roundzip6566.near, whose earlier launch cosmicfrog.nearlytrade.near (made by memewhale.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
v2 signals (weights fitted on launch history before the split date) plus two expert rules whose points are set by hand, not fitted (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange), and the creator's fee of justhoot launches. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 27 % (267 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -1.01 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 96% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-12T17:04 UTC with config v2l-1.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 15:49 UTC
24out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
0
0 of 2 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
96
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 16:08 UTC
Price now
0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.96x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 2 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
1
1
1
1
2
Buyers spent
26.00 NEAR
26.00 NEAR
26.00 NEAR
26.00 NEAR
26.20 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.26 NEAR
-0.26 NEAR
-1.01 NEAR
-1.01 NEAR
-1.01 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
Holders
1
1
0
0
0
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
—
—
—
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
2.4% · 1 of 1 hold
2.4% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
2.4% · 1 wallets
2.4% · 1 wallets
0% · 1 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
97.6%
97.6%
100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
—
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 1 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.