116 of the 319 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 116 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 36%.
Received 4.23 NEAR 22 min before the launch from memewhale.near, whose earlier launch cosmicfrog.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
v1 rules plus two expert rules (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange): their points are set by hand, not fitted. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 28 % (267 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 88 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-11 19:21:33 UTC, 208.1 min after the launch: AN2fqj4ad4ZXH…bup6u.
Outside buyers' net result: -3.11 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.11 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 88% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-12T15:53 UTC with config v2l-1.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 11:14 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.86x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
2 of 4 · 50%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 3 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
0%
0%
0%
100%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
208.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
4
4
4
4
4
Buyers spent
80.70 NEAR
81.70 NEAR
81.70 NEAR
81.70 NEAR
81.70 NEAR
Buyers net result
+2.84 NEAR
+3.68 NEAR
-0.86 NEAR
-0.86 NEAR
-3.11 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
0%
0%
0%
100%
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
-0.0099 NEAR
-0.07 NEAR
-0.07 NEAR
-0.11 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.13x
1.14x
1.14x
1.14x
1.14x
Holders
3
4
2
2
2
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0.1% · holds
0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
2.9% · 2 of 3 hold
2.9% · 2 of 3 hold
2.8% · 1 of 3 hold
Other early buyers
3.4% · 1 of 1 hold
3.5% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
6.3% · 4 wallets
6.4% · 4 wallets
2.8% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
93.7%
93.5%
97.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.