TERMINEAR nearly.trade

terminear.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch terminear.nearlyt….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2441 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 54 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: onetrades.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -21.93 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.14 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 54% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-04 17:10:53 UTC · block 218526031 · history: launch only
Transaction	C8JCo8XvjxDnH…n7L6q
Creator	onetrades.near explorer
Pool	terminear.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-05 16:26 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-05 16:26 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.54x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	14 of 33 · 42.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 17 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	363.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	17	28	31	32	33
Buyers spent	223.36 NEAR	556.32 NEAR	597.97 NEAR	598.07 NEAR	599.27 NEAR
Buyers net result	+1.72 NEAR	+35.65 NEAR	-2.47 NEAR	-11.05 NEAR	-21.93 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+2.14 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.30x	1.75x	1.75x	1.75x	1.75x
Holders	9	13	9	6	5
Top 10 holders' share	100%	99.2%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	9.4% · 7 of 15 hold	9.3% · 8 of 17 hold	3.8% · 2 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	0.2% · 2 of 2 hold	9.2% · 5 of 11 hold	3.4% · 3 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	9.6% · 17 wallets	18.5% · 28 wallets	7.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	90.4%	81.5%	92.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	99.2%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	99.6% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	axxe.near	25 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	not sold	+5.83 NEAR	pair bought within 56.0 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	177d0dba946d26e….near	63 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.98 NEAR	pair bought within 28.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.3 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.3 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	81 s · transaction	85.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 29.2 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	91 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	28.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.36 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 19.2 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
5	56c9a6ef438223b….near	94 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	27.3 min after buying · transaction	+1.21 NEAR	pair bought within 16.0 s of alola.near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	a61602ebdc9b583…012fc	101 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+2.28 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	fd5c09668cb779b…28411	101 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+1.87 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4	101 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.94 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6	102 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.23 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607	102 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.44 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27	104 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.07 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.4 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12	886fd94398f173c…35c2c	105 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.34 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13	alola.near	110 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	27.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0091 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 19.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.0 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
14	b8185e452876272…dff87	2.1 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 13.9 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	e8a162641a55288…58210	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.36 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 47.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.0 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.0 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
16	0aec2da507e7346…7ddf3	4.4 min · transaction	2.97 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.45 NEAR	none found
17	quick-rider-483….near	4.5 min · transaction	0.39 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.16 NEAR	none found
18	ff8c36a0da37161…3380f	5.2 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+1.62 NEAR	none found
19	equalharbor5773.near	5.7 min · transaction	29.70 NEAR	23.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.72 NEAR	none found
20	imweak.near	6.4 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of onetrades.near

None known.