TNEAR nearly.trade

tnear.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch tnear.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 2 % (237 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 42 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 333.6% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: codtch.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 13:36:16 UTC, 204.5 min after the launch: H1TVMRESMW67m…tC2vY.
Outside buyers' net result: -46.19 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.48 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 42% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 10:11:45 UTC · block 217618200 · history: launch only
Transaction	Gh1ThRBXm96PZ…MCEhf
Creator	codtch.near explorer
Pool	tnear.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.60 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-07 21:33 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-07 21:33 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.42x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	9 of 41 · 21.9%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 17 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	333.6%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	204.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	23	38	41	41	41
Buyers spent	539.94 NEAR	852.22 NEAR	943.25 NEAR	943.25 NEAR	943.25 NEAR
Buyers net result	+253.22 NEAR	+173.97 NEAR	-34.28 NEAR	-42.98 NEAR	-46.19 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	333.6%
Insiders' net result	+1.99 NEAR	+1.71 NEAR	+0.30 NEAR	+0.12 NEAR	+3.48 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.28x	2.34x	2.34x	2.34x	2.34x
Holders	25	32	17	10	9
Top 10 holders' share	82.4%	79.4%	97.9%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	29.4% · 17 of 17 hold	16.3% · 10 of 17 hold	3.6% · 2 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	4.2% · 6 of 6 hold	9.0% · 12 of 13 hold	0.2% · 4 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	33.6% · 23 wallets	25.3% · 30 wallets	3.8% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	66.2%	74.5%	96.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	82.4%	79.4%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	90.4% · 3 merged	80.1% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	18 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 12.2 s of d0tz.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.2 s of irene.user.intear.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2	d0tz.near	30 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	16.7 min after buying · transaction	+15.44 NEAR	pair bought within 12.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.7 s of banditossss.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3	irene.user.intear.near	42 s · transaction	19.91 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+15.38 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 17.6 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	supremegay.near	47 s · transaction	49.75 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	+18.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 29.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.7 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of d0tz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51	59 s · transaction	29.85 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+11.75 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 17.6 s of irene.user.intear.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	banditossss.tg	70 s · transaction	60.00 NEAR	8.4 min after buying · transaction	+31.83 NEAR	pair bought within 39.7 s of d0tz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	barrey.near	81 s · transaction	2.19 NEAR	24.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.32 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 57.6 s of kimpet77.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.7 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8	gusri.near	95 s · transaction	61.69 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-2.61 NEAR	pair bought within 58.6 s of capuccino88.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.1 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	ebisidiaidi.near	103 s · transaction	100.00 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	+21.18 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 56.0 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.4 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of pajet.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	2.0 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	+3.81 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 19.1 s of kimpet77.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.5 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.5 s of capuccino88.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	pajet.near	2.1 min · transaction	49.00 NEAR	26.2 min after buying · transaction	-14.81 NEAR	pair bought within 50.4 s of farcastmage.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	kimpet77.near	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	7.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.53 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 41.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.1 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.6 s of barrey.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
13	c9ac6891d3a1a65…fbca9	2.5 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	13.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	none found
14	capuccino88.near	2.5 min · transaction	19.90 NEAR	not sold	-7.84 NEAR	pair bought within 58.6 s of gusri.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	farcastmage.near	2.9 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	not sold	-21.77 NEAR	pair bought within 50.4 s of pajet.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	e8a162641a55288…58210	3.0 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.91 NEAR	pair bought within 41.6 s of kimpet77.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.4 s of farcastmage.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.3 s of capuccino88.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	6324up.near	3.9 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	20.5 min after buying · transaction	-19.45 NEAR	none found
18	7c514f45d519861…22d81	4.1 min · transaction	29.85 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-7.12 NEAR	none found
19	c24f52147375be1…ecc0d	4.4 min · transaction	6.96 NEAR	48.9 min after buying · transaction	-3.60 NEAR	none found
20	aranzimaxxing.u….near	4.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	13.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.82 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of codtch.near

None known.