TOILET nearly.trade

toilet.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch toilet.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (1855 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -4.21 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 82% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 18:11:21 UTC · block 218091531 · history: launch only
Transaction	2zCgqcFhruuir…iZmAN
Creator	boardshit.near explorer
Pool	toilet.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 01:01 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	18	19	19	19
Buyers spent	126.37 NEAR	126.37 NEAR	127.37 NEAR	127.37 NEAR	127.37 NEAR
Buyers net result	+13.46 NEAR	-0.38 NEAR	-0.15 NEAR	-1.34 NEAR	-4.21 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.24 NEAR	+0.10 NEAR	+0.10 NEAR	+0.08 NEAR	+0.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.25x	1.25x	1.25x	1.25x	1.25x
Holders	19	7	8	7	4
Top 10 holders' share	86.5%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	8.4% · 14 of 14 hold	5.1% · 6 of 14 hold	5.1% · 6 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	2.3% · 4 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	10.8% · 18 wallets	5.1% · 18 wallets	5.1% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	89.1%	94.8%	94.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	86.5%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	95.8% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a	8 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.37 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 56 of those launches pair bought within 1.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 59 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	9 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.98 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 59 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
4	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	10 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	14.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.17 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	db9077fc36538dd…6c79b	10 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.53 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6	0dcab0ca2c0d3dd…cb7ed	33 s · transaction	0.10 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.0004 NEAR	pair bought within 22.5 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.5 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	87096e94dbec6b1…ce668	47 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.42 NEAR	none found
8	js1112s.near	53 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	pair bought within 43.7 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.0 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9	3347dd8076331ad…52407	63 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.0025 NEAR	pair bought within 53.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.6 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.5 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	a00142af8f67f1b…98b3b	76 s · transaction	2.97 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	none found
11	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	81 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 18.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	b8185e452876272…dff87	92 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.10 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 29.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.3 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.0 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
13	e00953313c9b49e…b1762	113 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.51 NEAR	pair bought within 49.9 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	a3cb153394cd999…41e6c	2.1 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 35.3 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	kolosun.tg	3.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	none found
16	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	3.0 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.74 NEAR	pair bought within 48.0 s of h2onear.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	h2onear.near	3.8 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.53 NEAR	pair bought within 48.0 s of 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	sessssssssss.near	4.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	86 s after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	none found
19	alola.near	23.7 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of boardshit.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-01 18:22 UTC	nearly.trade	toilet-2.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only