TORRENT nearly.trade

torrent.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (0.700% per buy, 0.700% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
    Evidence: launch torrent.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (2139a11474aab44dd1de7491fab36fb1f788c6f48798417ac32c89afa8504ec3) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (818 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 12.15 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 106.3% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: roadsterhoot.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 16:43:50 UTC, 85 s after the launch: 7LdneSWASNB4a…qZb4Y.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -12.15 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.25 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-16 16:42:24 UTC · block 220248260 · history: launch only
TransactionEdnJsQDH62Zni…3eWRb
Creatorroadsterhoot.near explorer
Pooltorrent.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-16 19:04 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-16 19:04 UTC
Price now0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.75x the peak
Outside buyers in profit4 of 13 · 30.8%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 11 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%106.3%106.3%
Dev's first sell after launch85 s85 s85 s85 s85 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)1313131313
Buyers spent232.85 NEAR232.85 NEAR232.85 NEAR232.85 NEAR232.85 NEAR
Buyers net result-11.95 NEAR-12.14 NEAR-12.14 NEAR-12.15 NEAR-12.15 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%106.3%106.3%
Insiders' net result+3.06 NEAR+3.06 NEAR+3.06 NEAR+4.25 NEAR+4.25 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.25x1.25x1.25x1.25x1.25x
Holders31132
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.7% · 3 of 11 hold 0.1% · 1 of 11 hold 0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.7% · 13 wallets0.1% · 13 wallets0% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.3%99.9%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 sickvilla1308.near 4 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction -0.34 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 53 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer 5 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction -0.16 NEAR
pair bought within 22.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.5 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3 e8a162641a55288…58210 23 s · transaction 8.00 NEAR 76 s after buying · transaction +1.24 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 17.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.8 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4 p0tz.near 26 s · transaction 29.70 NEAR 93 s after buying · transaction +2.23 NEAR
pair bought within 21.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.1 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 27 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -0.32 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 22.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.3 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 36 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 44 s after buying · transaction +0.29 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 8.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.6 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 pramsndut.near 38 s · transaction 34.65 NEAR 21 s after buying · transaction +1.37 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 32.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 46 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 113 s after buying · transaction -4.59 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 11.3 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 alola.near 57 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.25 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 52.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 57 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 90 s after buying · transaction -1.92 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11 barrey.near 65 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 100 s after buying · transaction -1.33 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 7.3 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12 de8a9ccc3e8cbb1….near 95 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR 71 s after buying · transaction -6.46 NEAR none found
13 567e43c697f4113…84e34 3.0 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 41 s after buying · transaction -1.90 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of roadsterhoot.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-16 16:37 UTC justhoot v1 roadster-e245f6.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only