TRADE nearly.trade

trade-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 60.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 6000).
Evidence: launch trade-2.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'trade' was already used 24.3 h earlier by another creator (trade.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch trade.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 17 % (1237 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -44.06 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.10 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 36% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 19:30:09 UTC · block 217818271 · history: launch only
Transaction	7DSPMPH2ggFMX…ovdwn
Creator	tradenear.near explorer
Pool	trade-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 60.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 18:01 UTC

16 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit	38	271 of 705 outside buyers
Buy pressure	0	buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak	24	the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity	0	0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-13 14:00 UTC
Price now	5.48x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.24x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	271 of 705 · 38.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	1.4% · 5 of 10 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 4 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 19 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	36	111	149	184	264
Buyers spent	840.68 NEAR	2,947.85 NEAR	4,630.04 NEAR	6,000.16 NEAR	10,484.08 NEAR
Buyers net result	+247.26 NEAR	+2,066.96 NEAR	+1,443.46 NEAR	+1,902.49 NEAR	-44.06 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.34 NEAR	-0.10 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.32x	6.17x	7.63x	7.63x	8.25x
Holders	32	94	105	127	93
Top 10 holders' share	70.4%	48.5%	50.6%	46.8%	50.6%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	1.8% · 2 of 4 hold	3.4% · 4 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	20.4% · 17 of 20 hold	14.7% · 15 of 20 hold	14% · 12 of 20 hold
Other early buyers	6.6% · 6 of 6 hold	3.0% · 3 of 6 hold	3.1% · 3 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	28.8% · 30 wallets	21.0% · 30 wallets	17.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	71.2%	79.0%	82.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	70.4%	48.5%	46.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	81.2% · 3 merged	56.0% · 3 merged	51.2% · 3 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	20 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	+10.11 NEAR	pair bought within 55.2 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2	louduser4868.near	75 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+98.57 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 13.8 s of lorenzo18.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.5 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.6 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	76 s · transaction	61.04 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+51.26 NEAR	dev side received 40.00 NEAR from 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 (a member of the dev's linked group), 1425.0 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 8.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	76 s · transaction	63.41 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+18.00 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches dev side received 25.00 NEAR from 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 (a member of the dev's linked group), 1471.3 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 8.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	84 s · transaction	53.24 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+13.90 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches dev side received 15.00 NEAR from 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 (a member of the dev's linked group), 1463.5 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 8.3 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	84 s · transaction	50.87 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+37.57 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches dev side received 45.00 NEAR from 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 (a member of the dev's linked group), 1472.9 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	glacial_anomaly….near	88 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+19.01 NEAR	pair bought within 24.0 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	lorenzo18.near	89 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	8.0 min after buying · transaction	+112.11 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 13.8 s of louduser4868.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.8 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	ebisidiaidi.near	96 s · transaction	750.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+92.83 NEAR	pair bought within 48.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of lambadaa.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of lorenzo18.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486	103 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	9.6 min after buying · transaction	+22.23 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 8.2 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of lambadaa.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	lambadaa.near	105 s · transaction	70.50 NEAR	32.0 min after buying · transaction	+170.90 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 6.7 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	e00953313c9b49e…b1762	109 s · transaction	10.17 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+4.43 NEAR	pair bought within 2.7 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	alola.near	112 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.8 min after buying · transaction	+1.60 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 27.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.1 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.5 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
14	luckyfrog8326.near	114 s · transaction	185.00 NEAR	19.8 min after buying · transaction	+155.81 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches pair bought within 30.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.8 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
15	panjipetualang.near	115 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	8.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.72 NEAR	pair bought within 29.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.5 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
16	locnload.near	2.2 min · transaction	14.00 NEAR	not sold	+23.14 NEAR	pair bought within 18.2 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.9 s of lambadaa.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	579b7294974b54d…30203	2.4 min · transaction	38.00 NEAR	7.3 min after buying · transaction	+36.21 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 32.6 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.9 s of barrey.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.5 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
18	farcastmage.near	2.5 min · transaction	39.68 NEAR	9.6 min after buying · transaction	+67.67 NEAR	pair bought within 3.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.5 s of lorenzo18.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.9 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	barrey.near	2.8 min · transaction	7.46 NEAR	16.3 min after buying · transaction	+14.53 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 55.5 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.5 s of panjipetualang.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
20	office57.near	3.0 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	17.3 min after buying · transaction	+38.73 NEAR	pair bought within 36.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of tradenear.near

None known.