TSEAL nearly.trade

tseal.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch tseal.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 29 % (746 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 20.02 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: taskseal.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-21 13:48:57 UTC, 18.6 min after the launch: AD2rWTtifVR31…z3ZKJ.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -20.02 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.10 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-21 13:30:19 UTC · block 220951903 · history: launch only
Transaction8W8zrTUBYaHqb…wBjWk
Creatortaskseal.near explorer
Pooltseal.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy23.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-22 00:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-22 00:45 UTC
Price now0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.40x the peak
Outside buyers in profit15 of 35 · 42.9%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 22 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch——18.6 min18.6 min18.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2631353535
Buyers spent388.09 NEAR509.25 NEAR675.05 NEAR677.55 NEAR677.75 NEAR
Buyers net result+113.10 NEAR+167.64 NEAR-20.95 NEAR-20.02 NEAR-23.44 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+18.21 NEAR+22.86 NEAR+1.10 NEAR+1.10 NEAR+1.10 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.86x2.07x2.48x2.48x2.48x
Holders2427883
Top 10 holders' share64.8%66.8%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.1% · holds 2.1% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 22.2% · 20 of 22 hold 25.4% · 19 of 22 hold 2.6% · 3 of 22 hold
Other early buyers 2.6% · 3 of 4 hold 2.9% · 6 of 8 hold 1.5% · 4 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)24.8% · 26 wallets28.4% · 30 wallets4.0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)73.0%69.5%95.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)64.8%66.8%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder98.2% · 2 merged98.3% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 16.7 min after buying · transaction +0.16 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 3 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 21.1 min after buying · transaction -0.61 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3 ro52.near 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +1.30 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
4 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 4 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 16.4 min after buying · transaction +0.44 NEAR
pair bought within 0.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 4 s · transaction 19.29 NEAR 15.3 min after buying · transaction +11.09 NEAR
pair bought within 1.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 24 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 15.9 min after buying · transaction +4.16 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 11.8 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
7 axxe.near 27 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold -1.55 NEAR
pair bought within 3.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.8 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
8 flatbat5958.near 27 s · transaction 17.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction +13.56 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.8 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
9 finequiche1009.near 27 s · transaction 37.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction +19.57 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.8 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
10 lowfrog6012.near 29 s · transaction 34.00 NEAR 15.4 min after buying · transaction +8.91 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches
pair bought within 1.9 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.9 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
11 alola.near 36 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.5 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 33.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
12 dryoil1584.near 46 s · transaction 32.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction -1.19 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.9 s of lowfrog6012.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
13 longquiche338.near 47 s · transaction 28.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction +11.44 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.5 s of lowfrog6012.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
14 stillurial1675.near 47 s · transaction 35.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction -0.65 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.5 s of lowfrog6012.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
15 realsite8942.near 55 s · transaction 27.00 NEAR 14.9 min after buying · transaction +5.79 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of roughzone8076.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of sickuser1627.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.9 s of longquiche338.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 16 more pairs · all pairs
16 roughzone8076.near 55 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 14.9 min after buying · transaction +2.34 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 18 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of sickuser1627.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.9 s of longquiche338.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.5 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 16 more pairs · all pairs
17 sickuser1627.near 55 s · transaction 27.00 NEAR 14.9 min after buying · transaction +2.79 NEAR
group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of roughzone8076.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.5 s of longquiche338.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.1 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 16 more pairs · all pairs
18 wetpuma8279.near 77 s · transaction 11.00 NEAR 14.6 min after buying · transaction -1.05 NEAR
pair bought within 31.0 s of dryoil1584.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.5 s of roughzone8076.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.4 s of longquiche338.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
19 js1112s.near 81 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 100 s after buying · transaction +0.50 NEAR
pair bought within 44.5 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.4 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
20 hungcoiiii1.near 100 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction +1.03 NEAR
pair bought within 12.0 s of sharpharbor717.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.4 s of js1112s.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.6 s of pinkzest7538.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of taskseal.near

None known.